New Brunswick facing lowest GDP growth in Canada this year, Deloitte forecast warns

A new report projects that New Brunswick will lag behind the rest of Canada this year on gross domestic product growth in 2025. 

Deloitte Canada's latest economic outlook forecasts a 0.6 per cent change in GDP for the province in 2025 — tied with Quebec for last in the country. 

That figure also slashes the last provincial projection nearly in half. In March, the province tabled its own outlook alongside the budget, and it forecast growth of 1.1 per cent this year. 

The report also projects Canada's economy will see a downturn over two consecutive quarters this year. This would meet the conventional definition of a recession, although the report does not use that term.

New Brunswick Finance Minister René Legacy says the forecast is concerning, but he hopes infrastructure projects to begin this year will help offset the estimate.

"There's still some major projects that are supposed to begin in New Brunswick this year that potentially could have a positive impact," Legacy said Monday. "I'm not sure if Deloitte factored any of these in, or if they're just looking at the macroeconomic factors.

"There's the transmission corridor between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, we are starting to prep for the Isthmus ... hopefully we'll see these infrastructure projects move the needle."

WATCH | N.B. finance minister says 'major projects' could have positive economic impact: 

Province still confident, despite report’s forecast of economic downturn

24 hours ago

Duration 2:47

Deloitte Canada predicts an economic downturn across Canada in 2025 because of an unstable trading relationship with the U.S. and a decrease in consumer confidence. The report puts New Brunswick at the bottom of the pack for growth.

Construction on the transmission line is to begin this year, while a news release from the province estimates work on the Chignecto Isthmus will take about a decade. Preliminary engineering studies, design and land acquisition are expected over the first five years, with construction to follow after that.

Legacy noted the Department of Finance and Treasury Board will soon be preparing the economic update for the quarter that ends in June. 

Chief economist Dawn Desjardins said in a statement that Deloitte's forecast draws on the current trade environment and economic data.

"New Brunswick is highly exposed to trade and not only at risk of being impacted by U.S. tariffs but [it] also exports seafood to China, with much of those goods facing 25 per cent Chinese tariffs," Desjardins said in a statement.

"N.B. also faces U.S. duties on its softwood lumber exports."

Desjardins noted that aside from tariff concerns, New Brunswick is also seeing weaker immigration and lower sales in the housing market.

Consumers showing caution

Louis-Philippe Gauthier, Atlantic vice-president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said small and medium-sized business owners are feeling the impact.

"When you look at consumers being more careful with their dollars, small businesses not necessarily in the mood to invest their money, to grow their business, because of all the uncertainty, what we're seeing is potentially a slowdown on the horizon," Gauthier said in an interview. 

"It's a time of pressures, it's a time of uncertainty, and unfortunately that's the moment in time." 

He said it's too soon to know what government interventions might help businesses weather the storm. 

"Over the last few years, business owners have lived ups and downs like never before," Gauthier said. "So unfortunately, it's more of that."