Jamie Gillies: New Brunswick's trend of electing young premiers

On Sept. 22, New Brunswick may elect Brian Gallant and the New Brunswick Liberal Party as the new government of the province. Gallant is 32 years old. 

If Gallant is able to win the election, this will make him the third “boy wonder” premier elected in the province since Bernard Lord upset Camille Thériault in 1999. 

But it raises an interesting question: is New Brunswick out of step with other provinces and the federal government in electing such young leaders?

First, this is not a new phenomenon in New Brunswick. 

Louis J. Robichaud, Richard Hatfield and Frank McKenna were all under the age of 40 when they became premiers. 

David Alward then is the exception to the rule, winning his first election over the age of 40.  

Robichaud, Hatfield and McKenna were all criticized for being too young or “wet behind the ears” when they took office. The younger premiers elected more recently have been criticized for this as well. 

So age might not be a very good determinant of whether a party leader is ready for a political executive leadership job.

Second, young premiers under the age of 40 have been elected in every province since the Great Depression. 

Joe Clark was also 40 years less a day when he become prime minister. And many federal politicians have been elected not just in their 30s but in their 20s. 

Most Canadian political party leaders, however, assume office some time after they are 40. So what is it about New Brunswick where, if Gallant is successful next week, six premiers since 1960 will have won provincial elections under the age 40?

Part of the anomaly is New Brunswick’s political culture. 

We live in a province where only two political parties have stood a reasonable chance of forming a government. 

That is not unique in Canada; a single political party has dominated Alberta politics for more than 40 years.  But it has led to an electoral stability that certainly affects the age of out-party political leadership. 

Until the Alward Progressive Conservatives defeated Shawn Graham, every New Brunswick government had been in power for more than one term.

Opposition leaders then, upon assuming leadership of a party out of power, must have realized that they would have to serve at least four to five years, and usually more, before they might get a chance to form a government. 

Four years is a long time in politics and more senior politicians in New Brunswick than in other provinces perhaps recognized that helming an opposition party given the electoral stability of our governments was not the best career move.

As a result of the lack of government turnover, that left openings for younger politicians in New Brunswick to assume leadership positions ahead of schedule or ahead of the curve in Canadian politics.

Further, New Brunswick has a tradition of politicians “graduating” from provincial politics to the federal government level and becoming Members of Parliament, federal cabinet ministers and Senators. 

Moving up in provincial politics often means moving up to the federal level for many who get involved and are successful.

So in the era of these three long-term premiers, governing party longevity probably played a role in allowing a younger leader to be competitive in an opposition party leadership race. 

As a result, the Progressive Conservatives selected a young Richard Hatfield at the end of the 1960s and the Liberals selected a young Frank McKenna in the mid-1980s.

So it used to be that Robichaud or Hatfield or McKenna would get elected and stay in power for 10 years or at least three elections.

Those were powerful reasons why the party stars of the opposition party such as former cabinet ministers or federal MPs might shy away from running for leadership. 

This might explain why younger politicians, such as Hatfield and McKenna, were able to find openings in leadership contests. 

The pecking order of career party “stars” lining up to run for leadership is much shorter here in New Brunswick than it is elsewhere, particularly in Ottawa and the largest provinces.

But this does not entirely explain though why we have so many young premiers since McKenna. Since the 1999 election, governments have not lasted as long in power. 

Leadership contests with the two major parties since the election of McKenna have been out-of-sync with the previous provincial trend of government stability.

I believe that we are in a very interesting political period in New Brunswick, since McKenna retired from provincial politics in 1997. We have had far more government turnover, far more electoral surprises and some new trends in selecting party leaders.

To summarize, McKenna’s successor, Thériault, became premier and then lost the next election and did not form the government. That set in motion a new period in politics, one characterized by leadership that confounded expectations.

Lord won a leadership contest when the Progressive Conservatives were out of favour and was not expected to win the 1999 provincial election.  He did. 

The Liberals selected Graham following a huge election defeat, with many party leaders likely believing that they would be out of power for a generation. 

Graham nearly won in his first try and then became premier in the next.

Alward assumed the Progressive Conservative leadership after an electoral defeat, again with some party leaders assuming that they would be out of power for two elections.

Graham’s defeat after one term further disrupted the two-plus election trend, and after this electoral defeat the New Brunswick Liberal Party held a leadership contest and another young leader, Brian Gallant, was chosen.

Even with more government turnover today than in the four decades between 1960 and 1999, no leadership race since 1997 has featured all of the prominent personalities in each party competing for the leadership of either the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives.

All of these contests have seen notable cabinet ministers, politicians at the federal level, and potential star candidates either not run or give up bids before they started. 

With governments in power for shorter periods, one would think that this would favour both older politicians and more candidates running in these leadership contests, since they go in knowing that if they win, they have a reasonable shot of becoming premier and forming a government.

But we continue to persist in selecting young leaders. Gallant is a case in point.

The leader trend is also out-of-sync in another way. 

In each instance of Robichaud, Hatfield and McKenna being elected for the first time, each opposition party held a great re-thinking of leadership and priorities after losing power. 

The first person selected as leader following these massive electoral defeats in 1960, in 1970 and in 1987, did not become premier. 

But since Bernard Lord, and assuming Gallant and the Liberals maintain their lead in the polls, all of the leaders selected through these initial leadership contests when times are bad after an election defeat, have then gone on to become premier in fairly short order.

It is now a trend. New Brunswick political culture favours young leaders regardless of government turnover. 

It will take a more senior party leader, over the age of 40, to form two consecutive majority governments, to buck this trend.