Legislature set for new session with election still a possibility

Members of the New Brunswick Legislature reconvene Tuesday for a final session before the next provincial election — a session that could be brief and tumultuous. 

It remains unclear whether Premier Blaine Higgs will allow the legislature to go the distance or go the polls.

Normally MLAs would spend weeks debating legislation this fall and vote on a new budget next March, then continue sitting through to an adjournment next June.

Higgs may instead opt to load today's Speech from the Throne with good-news announcements and then dissolve the legislature within days for the early election he's been hinting about, says Opposition Liberal Leader Susan Holt.

Another rumour she said she has heard is he'd inject something into the throne speech that six rebellious Progressive Conservative MLAs would feel obligated to vote against — triggering an election that he could blame on them.

Higgs told CBC News in Ottawa on Monday night that the new session will open as scheduled but he wouldn't commit to much more than that, saying it would hinge on his MLAs.

"We're delivering the throne speech, so we're looking forward to that. I expect all of them, everyone, to be present," he said.

Asked when he'll decide on an election call, he said it "depends how things go in caucus. I guess that would be the answer to that. But so far, so good." 

Holt said Monday that Higgs needs to make up his mind. 

"We're spending a lot of time spinning our wheels wondering whether the premier's going to call an election, when we could be actually providing people with affordable housing or putting civil servants to work trying to deliver health care to New Brunswickers," she said.

"Some of us are really tired of this and want him to decide, make it clear and get on with it." 

Green Leader David Coon also considers those two scenarios to be the most likely.

"I don't think we'll be there very long because this premier wants to call an election and he's looking for the first opportunity to do so," Coon said.

Six PC MLAs voted with Holt's Liberals in June on their motion calling on the government to hold more consultations with the child and youth advocate on Policy 713, which sets out guidelines for creating safe spaces for LGBTQ students in provincial schools.

Higgs sidelined those MLAs for the summer, refusing to meet them as a group. Two resigned from his cabinet and two others, who were ministers, were shuffled out.

The premier announced Sept. 15 he'll lead the PC party into the next election, which is officially scheduled for Oct. 21, 2024.

But he said the day of that announcement that the recalcitrance of the six MLAs — who would hold the balance of power in the legislature if they voted as a bloc — remained "a big concern."

Those six MLAs have since committed, to varying degrees, to support him on confidence votes and on legislation in order to avoid forcing New Brunswickers to the polls.

But Higgs said earlier this month that the very fact those MLAs signed a collective pledge to that effect in August shows they're operating as "an independent group" that could break ranks with him.

"A government cannot function in this manner," he said.

The six MLAs turned down or did not not respond to interview requests from CBC News on Monday.

Holt said she expects the session to be as dramatic and chaotic as the final week of sitting days in June.

That saw the vote by the six MLAs, followed by the withdrawal of a government bill that would have taken away decision-making powers from anglophone district education councils.

"I haven't seen any change from the premier, and this is a drama of his own causing," Holt said.

"He is focused on what he thinks is best and is not prepared to listened to his own team members or anyone else." 

The Liberals and Greens offered similar lists of issues they plan to focus on in the new session, including the cost of living, health care, housing and the environment.