Election storylines converge on trade-dependent Saint John riding
Maverick Liberal takes on Poilievre-picked challenger in city with long history of exports to U.S.
In a storage yard a few minutes from the Saint John port, larger shipping containers are being lifted and moved around like Lego bricks.
Large forklift-like machines roar back and forth, small but essential players in the supply chain we hear so much about — the essential moving of goods from producers to consumers.
This is the service that Riptide Intermodal and Logistics provides to its clients, major international shippers who use the port.
Riptide loads, unloads and stores cargo, including some in containers bound for, or coming from, the U.S.
And it's why owner April Logue has been watching the discussion of U.S. tariffs closely.
"There is going to be a cost that will trickle down to all of the supply chain partners," Logue said.
"We're looking at ways that we can support our customers with supply chain changes to routing, looking at different modes, means of transportation, ways that we can mitigate the cost and still continue to provide efficiency to our customers."
Companies like Riptide represent one reason many of the narratives in the current federal election campaign converge on the riding of Saint John-Kennebecasis.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has ranked Saint John the most tariff-vulnerable city in Canada because of its huge economic dependence on exports.
Irving Oil's refinery sends 80 per cent of its products to the United States. Forestry giant J.D. Irving Ltd. also relies on American buyers.
Beyond the big players, the fates of countless smaller companies also hinge on what the Trump administration does next.
Saint John has always been an outward-looking, entrepreneurial city, embracing trading ties with the United States.
In the years before 1867, a political debate over rail links — to Upper Canada, or to New England — created controversy among city merchants and briefly jeopardized the plan for Confederation.
Now the American-driven commercial focus is openly questioned.
"Trade diversification is key. You've heard all political parties talk about that," said Craig Estabrooks, the CEO of the port, which has more than tripled its container traffic since 2017.
"Make sure that we continue that momentum — that's what we're hearing from people."
Beyond the trade issue, the fate of the riding's Liberal incumbent, and the choice of his Conservative opponent, are also intertwined with the larger election story.
Three-term MP Wayne Long is unabashed about being the first Liberal MP to call for an increasingly unpopular Justin Trudeau to resign as Liberal leader in June 2024.
"It started with me, and then there was a group of eight, and then there was a group of 20, and then there was a group of 28," Long said.
Long says Trudeau's January resignation and the subsequent improvement in Liberal popularity has validated his early call.
"For those that say, 'You weren't loyal to the prime minister,' I'd say, 'Well, you know what? I was loyal to the Liberal Party.' Look at where we are now."
According to Long, new prime minister Mark Carney's steady, serious approach to the trade threat is winning over voters in the riding, which has been redrawn to add Quispamsis and exclude the west side of Saint John.
Riptide's Logue lives in Quispamsis and won't say how she is leaning in the election, but she knows what she is looking for.
"We need a government that's going to work with the industry, work with the manufacturers and the importers and exporters and look at these free trade agreements [and ] opportunities into new markets," she said.
She believes the pivot to more trade elsewhere can turn the tariff crisis into an opportunity.
"Anybody that is a logistics provider, anybody that works in the industry knows that there's a lot of up and downs," she said.
"You have to be ready to move with the ebbs and flows. … This is kind of our world, and what we do, and how we're always making changes and adapting and evolving."
CBC News had arranged an interview with Long's chief opponent, Conservative candidate Melissa Young, for this story.
But Young's campaign team cancelled the interview on short notice the day after Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made a campaign stop in Saint John.
Young has worked for trade unions and governments in both New Brunswick and Ontario in areas including skills training and apprenticeships, making her a good fit with Poilievre's appeal to blue-collar workers.
"She has been working across Canada to recruit our youth into boots, not suits," Poilievre said in Saint John last week.
Young was appointed the candidate on the day of the election call, March 23, despite two other contestants who were hoping to win the nomination.
"I don't know what the issue was," said Lisa Keenan, a Saint John lawyer who was once president of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party and chair of the Saint John Port Authority. "Obviously, I wasn't the candidate, I don't think, that they were looking for."
Keenan is clearly disappointed with a top-down, leader-driven candidate selection process.
"I am a Conservative. I remain a Conservative, but grassroots participation as well as empowerment to people at local levels is extremely important," she said. "It speaks volumes to where you're going as a party."
Asked whether she would vote for Young, Keenan said, "I think that's between myself and the ballot box, but as I said, I am a Conservative and I wish the party well."
Four other candidates are now in the race in Saint John-Kennebecasis: Armand Cormier for the NDP, David MacFarquhar for the Greens, William Edgett for the People's Party of Canada, and Austin Venedam for the Libertarian Party of Canada.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
