7 New Brunswick political stories to watch in 2015

The year that’s drawing to an end marked a turning point in New Brunswick politics, with David Alward’s Progressive Conservative government losing power to Brian Gallant’s Liberals.

But many of the implications of that change will only become clear in 2015.

Here are seven questions about the political scene that may be answered in the coming year.

1. What will be the impact of the fracking moratorium?

Gallant introduced his hydraulic fracturing moratorium bill on the second-last day of the legislature before the Christmas break and MLAs will return in February to pass it.

​The first impact could be in Penobsquis, where Corridor Resources extracts shale gas to power the nearby PotashCorp mine, where 450 people work.

The fracking moratorium will prevent Corridor from fracking new wells or re-fracking existing ones.

It’s not clear how long existing wells can supply gas to the mine or what alternatives PotashCrop has.

“It could have a serious impact on our costs,” the company said in a statement.

2. Will the Gallant government try to change the forestry plan?

In opposition, the Liberals questioned whether the Crown forestry plan, which allows higher levels of logging in publicly owned forests, was based on sound science.

​Now, though, they must weigh whether changes would amount to breaking the contracts signed with J.D. Irving Ltd. and others.

“We don’t want to go fight in court with those big corporations,” Natural Resources Minister Denis Landry said.

“We’ll see if there are adjustments to be made and then we’ll see if they agree with them or not.”

3. How high — or low — will the deficit go?

​The Liberals said during the campaign that it wasn’t realistic to push for a balanced budget as quickly as the Tories were promising.

Instead, they’ve pledged $150-million per year in infrastructure spending to create jobs, along with a major strategic review of government programs intended to reduce spending by $250 million annually, beginning in 2016-2017.

But some of those decisions will take shape in 2015, including what Finance Minister Roger Melanson calls an effort to “optimize” the number of schools in the province.

Where the numbers end up depends on all these factors--and many others beyond the government’s control.

4. Will pipeline diplomacy bear fruit?

​The fall of 2014 saw a flurry of meetings between premiers about the proposed Energy East pipeline, which would carry crude oil from Alberta to Saint John for export and, perhaps eventually, for refining at Irving Oil’s refinery.

There’s growing opposition to the project in Quebec. Though the premiers of Ontario, Alberta and New Brunswick seem determined to win support by trying to address environmental and First Nations objections.

Other wild cards include U.S. President Barack Obama’s looming decision on whether to allow the Keystone XL pipeline; a rejection would increase the impetus for Energy East.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been accused of not doing enough to mollify opponents by resisting emissions regulations.

5. Will Mother Nature wreak havoc again, including with the bottom line?

Wild weather isn’t just an inconvenience, or a danger, for New Brunswickers: it also has an impact on the provincial budget.

The last quarterly report by the Department of Finance projected that government spending will be $64 million higher than budgeted in 2014-15; of that overrun, $44 million is blamed on disaster assistance funding after post-tropical storm Arthur and road maintenance and repairs made necessary by other major weather events.

6. Will the Green Party eclipse the NDP?

​Two political parties are now laying claim to being the “third party” in New Brunswick politics. The NDP earned almost 13 per cent of the vote in September’s election, double what the Greens received.

But the NDP elected no MLAs, while Green Party Leader David Coon made a historic breakthrough by winning Fredericton South. That means more visibility.

The most recent poll by Corporate Research Associates suggested the Greens narrowing the gap with the NDP, though the movement was within the poll’s margin of error. Still, each party will be jockeying to become the left-wing alternative to the Liberals and PCs.

7. What will the federal campaign mean for New Brunswick?

​Canadians will go to the polls in October and in New Brunswick the Conservatives hope to hold or expand on the eight ridings out of 10 they now hold — their highest since Brian Mulroney’s PC landslide in 1984.

Some defeated provincial PCs may be looking to launch federal careers, while federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s recent musings about the Energy East pipeline’s lack of “social licence” could complicate any campaiging his provincial ally, Premier Brian Gallant, will do for federal Liberal candidates in this province.