What's at stake in Monday's provincial byelection in Terrebonne, Que.

Voters will be heading to the polls in a provincial byelection in the riding of Terrebonne on Monday, to fill a seat left vacant by former Coalition Avenir Québec "super minister" Pierre Fitzgibbon. 

Fitzgibbon, who oversaw economy, innovation and energy, resigned suddenly in September of last year, surprising his party and its leader, Premier François Legault.

Fitzgibbon first won the North Shore Montreal riding, once a Parti Québécois stronghold, in 2018. He repeated as victor in 2022, collecting 49 per cent of votes, against 19 per cent for the PQ.

Nine candidates are in the running to replace Fitzgibbon, including the following candidates from Quebec's five main political parties:

• Alex Gagné for the Coalition Avenir Québec.
• Catherine Gentilcore for the Parti Québécois.
• Virginie Bouchard for the Quebec Liberal Party.
• Nadia Poirier for Québec Solidaire. 
• Ange Claude Bigilimana for the Quebec Conservative Party.

WATCH | Tariffs, cost of living among main concerns ahead of byelection: 

Tariffs, cost of living among main concerns ahead of Terrebonne, Que., byelection

5 days ago

Duration 2:30

The provincial byelection was triggered by the resignation of former Coalition Avenir Québec "super minister" Pierre Fitzgibbon, who oversaw economy, innovation and energy. Experts say holding onto its seat could be an uphill battle for the CAQ. 

The latest polls, according to Quebec's polling aggregator website, QC 125, show the PQ candidate in the lead with 40 per cent of voter intentions, compared to 27 per cent for the CAQ and 17 per cent for the Liberals.

This comes as no surprise to political scientist Donal Gil, an assistant professor in political science at Concordia University.

After more than six years in power, and with a general election slated for 2026, the CAQ is facing an uphill battle — and Monday's byelection will be a real test for Legault.

"He has really struggled to impress Quebecers in the last couple of years. There's been a whole bunch of scandals that have done a lot of damage, not just to the party, but also his personal brand and without him… it's not clear who would be the standard bearer for the party," Gil said. 

Gil was referring to scandals like the provincial auto insurance board's SAAQclic online platform, the government's flip-flopping on Quebec City's third link mobility project and the hosting of NHL games in the provincial capital. 

Those issues, Gil believes, have contributed to softening support for the CAQ in favour of the Parti Québécois. Tariff threats and the ongoing trade war with the United states is also giving the federalist leaning Liberals a new raison d'être and a much-needed boost. 

"It seems like both federalists and sovereigntists who have been in the CAQ tent in recent years may be both going home," Gill said.

"Polls are showing that there are green shoots of revival for the Liberal Party and of course, the PQ has been doing very well over the last year and a half." 

Regional issues: tariffs and transit top of mind

While tariffs have been front and centre federally and provincially, the issue has trickled down and become a major concern for local businesses.

Pierre Berthiaume, CEO of Chambre de commerce et d'industrie Les Moulins, the local chamber of commerce for Terrebonne and Mascouche, said the issue is creating a lot of uncertainty.

"We have nice companies here, big companies," Berthiaume said, explaining that some of them bring in $15 million in revenues a year with a lot of products being shipped to the United States.

"If the tariffs go forward, it will affect their revenue. They're looking to see what would be the best option for them to keep their employees in place, to continue to grow as they were growing without jeopardizing their business."

Another hot-button issue in the region is public transit. 

A recent Léger poll showed that 80 per cent of people living in the greater Montreal area are in favour of increasing transit services.

The mayors of Terrebonne, Repentigny, Mirabel, Blainville, Saint-Eustache, Deux-Montagnes, L'Assomption and Rosemère have banded together and called on the government to do more about the lack of public transit options on the North Shore. 

Deux-Montagnes Mayor Denis Martin explained they've been encouraged to densify the North Shore suburbs but services have not kept up with population growth.

While the CAQ government recently gave the green light to a major tramway project that will bring commuters from the island of Montreal to the eastern suburb of Repentigny, it won't meet all the region's needs. 

"If we leave from Deux-Montagnes say, and we want to go to CEGEP in Terrebonne ... they have to do four transfers and it will take them about two and a half hours. Now if I go by car, it will take me maybe 20-25 minutes so we're kind of stuck using the car all the time and traffic is horrendous on the North Shore," Martin said.

Berthiaume also pointed to issues using public transit to get around in Terrebonne. As an example, he used the city's industrial park, many parts of which aren't serviced because there's nowhere for buses to turn around.

While the tramway project might alleviate the Montreal to Terrebonne commute, Berthiaume said the problem for both local and regional transit is that there are no short-term solutions in sight. 

"We're looking at a tramway which is a good idea ... but the Tramway de l'est will be in operation in 2036. We're in 2025.  You're looking 11 years down the road."

Even if voter turnout is generally low for byelections, local issues can't be ignored. Gil explained those who do vote tend to be well informed and highly motivated.

"It's relevant because ultimately, when people are voting with those issues in mind, they're deciding whether or not they want to renew the contract of the existing government or whether they're casting a ballot for change," Gil said. 

Polling stations will open at 9:30 a.m. on Monday and close at 8 p.m., with preliminary results expected to begin being available at 8:30 p.m. For more information on where and how to vote, visit the Élections Québec website.