With Quebec independence a top priority, Parti Québécois struggles for relevance in Trump era
Rise in Canadian unity creates challenge for party whose key focus is Quebec sovereignty
U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff threats and digs at Canadian sovereignty are forcing Canadian politicians of all stripes to adapt, and in Quebec, the opposition Parti Québécois is facing a particularly tough challenge.
Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has put Quebec independence front and centre, promising a referendum on sovereignty within a first PQ mandate.
That's been mostly a successful message that has helped revitalize the party.
But Trump has changed the game.
Across the country — even in Quebec, where people generally identify less with Canada — calls for Canadian unity in the face of Trump's threats are surging.
"People are questioning whether or not it's a good time for Quebec to even think about being a country, in a situation when even a G7 country like Canada seems too small to be sitting right next to Donald Trump," Emilie Nicolas, a columnist for Le Devoir, told CBC in an interview.
Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president at polling firm Léger marketing, told CBC he's seen a real shift in recent weeks, directly related to what he calls "the Trump eclipse."
"Support for sovereignty has gone down to its lowest level that we've measured in many, many years," Dallaire told CBC.
The PQ is still first in voting intentions in Quebec, but has also seen a slight decline in popularity since Trump was elected.
"It's a little more difficult right now for the PQ as a party whose main platform is about pushing for Quebec independence and pointing out why Ottawa poses a problem," Dallaire said.
"The traditional levers that the PQ can use to try to win are much harder to use," he said.
PQ stays the course
The PQ's response to the tariff crisis has been not to pivot, but to double down on Quebec independence, saying it's the best way for the province to weather threats from south of the border.
"It's one thing to say that Canada needs to be united, but if it's not, and other provinces are working for their business — not minding Quebec's business — I mean, that's the reality," St-Pierre Plamondon said last week at the launch of the party's byelection campaign in the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne.
"I've been saying from the start, we should have a strong Team Quebec that looks at our interests," he said.
The party expanded on this theme in a video posted on social media site X Monday, saying Canadian unity was "a myth."
"Being part of Canada does not protect Quebec, it weakens it," the video says.
The video says Ontario Premier Doug Ford has used the tariff crisis to launch an election, that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is protecting her province's oil interests, and that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is "overwhelmed" by the situation.
"An independent Quebec would have the advantage of having a single discourse consistent with its interests, of having a diplomacy that works only for Quebecers and a well-protected border," the video goes on to say.
Going against the grain
Analysts say it's a curious political strategy for St-Pierre Plamondon.
"It is very much not the time to put forward that message, and any time that he's going to be putting forward that message, he's going to wade into difficult political ground," Nicolas said.
Dallaire agrees.
"Trying too hard to blame current governments in place for what's happening doesn't look too good when voters right now just want unity," he said.
"They want to see the governments working together hand in hand to defend Quebecers, to defend Canadians."
But PQ supporters say St-Pierre Plamondon's strategy makes sense.
"This is one of the trademarks of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon — to stick to what he says. Don't expect him to change a bit about what he's saying about sovereignty," Jocelyn Caron, a former PQ party president and candidate, told CBC in an interview.
"It's normal to have a reaction of a little bit of fear when you have someone like Donald Trump who's making all kinds of threats against your country," Caron said. "But in the long term, I don't think it will have any impact on the sovereigntist movement," he said.
Caron said an independent Quebec in the Trump era would have good days and bad days, just like any other country.
"Our position is that we would have more freedom and good days than in the federal regime," he said.
He even thinks Canada could be in a better bargaining position with the U.S. on trade if Quebec was a separate country.
"We would be like two countries in front of one, Canada and Quebec in front of the United States. And I think we would be stronger to have two voices against one," he said.
Caron also believes that Trump's threats to Canadian sovereignty could help people across the country better understand how Quebecers who want their own nation feel on a regular basis.
"This little crisis I think normalizes the discourse about independence," he said.
Lining up with Trump's 'war on woke'
The PQ also faces another Trump-related challenge.
While the party generally leans left and promotes social democratic values, St-Pierre Plamondon has been very critical of the so-called 'woke' movement, which puts him in the same ideological ballpark as Trump.
At a news conference last November, St-Pierre Plamondon railed against the excesses of what he calls "wokeism".
"Wokeism, strictly speaking, is an anti-democratic movement that refuses dialogue and uses intimidation and disinformation to impose its agenda," St-Pierre Plamondon said at the time.
He was speaking about statements made by Québec Solidaire MNA Haroun Bouazzi, who suggested fellow lawmakers at the National Assembly are quick to blame a racialized "other" that is "dangerous or inferior."
But St-Pierre Plamondon suggested that the woke movement was larger than Québec Solidaire, and was about a small minority of people imposing radical views through intimidation, and "contaminating society."
"People are fed up with it – me first and foremost," he said.
At the time, many people in Quebec might have agreed with Plamondon. But his statements may have fallen out of favour now, with their parallels to Trump's ongoing "war on woke."
St-Pierre Plamondon also recently suggested Trump's concerns about fentanyl and illegal immigrants crossing the border from Canada into the U.S. are well-founded.
The PQ also raised eyebrows by abstaining from voting on a motion at the National Assembly promoting LGBTQ2S+ rights.
Voters sour on almost anything Trump supports
Nicolas says lining up ideologically with Trump on any issue is a difficult position to be in right now for Canadian politicians.
"It's going to be hard for political people in Canada of all stripes to put forward ideas that are associated with things that Donald Trump agrees with," Nicolas said.
"There is very much that momentum of basically a positional identity creation that we're going through — that if Donald Trump thinks something is a good idea, maybe it's not what we want to do ourselves," she said.
Dallaire shares the same view.
"It's a bit trickier now to play the culture war the same way that it was played before, because some concepts or words may become a little bit more toxic because of the tension in the United States," he said.
"Key issues that have been very popular and useful for a lot of parties related to identity politics have lost their edge. They're not very important to voters right now," he said.
Caron said St-Pierre Plamondon's criticism of wokeism is far more nuanced, thoughtful, and moderate than Trump's.
He said St-Pierre Plamondon is more in line with other left-leaning politicians who've at times criticized woke ideology and cancel culture, such as Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders.
"Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon is saying it's not good to accuse or to shame people when they're not in the right lane. This is the aspect that he's criticizing," Caron said,
"There will never be a discussion about rolling back protection for minorities like you see in the United States," Caron said.
Pivot or patience?
Dallaire said the PQ may be going against the prevailing view on some issues for the moment, but that there's still more than a year and a half before the next provincial election.
He said the party's best strategy might be to just wait things out.
"Finding the right message is very difficult. So a little bit of patience, seeing what's going to happen in the coming weeks is probably the best way to go," he said.
Nicolas isn't so sure.
"St-Pierre Plamondon does have the time to pivot and to change his message if that's something that he's interested in doing," she said.
"The provincial election is a long way off. There's a lot that can happen until then. But the one thing that we know will last for four years is the presidency of Donald Trump," she said.
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