Couillard's Liberals need English debate to resonate beyond anglophones
Liberals still dominate among non-francophone voters, but they need more than that to win
The Quebec Liberals need the support of the province's anglophones and others who don't speak French as a first language in order to form a government. But while non-francophone voters form the bedrock of the Liberals' electoral base, they aren't enough to put the party over the top.
That is why Monday's English-language debate is important for Philippe Couillard — and why the debate needs to resonate beyond the non-francophone electorate in order for it to have an impact on the Oct. 1 provincial election.
According to the CBC's Quebec Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polls, the Liberals have about 66 per cent support among non-francophones. Their closest rival, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec, musters only 14 per cent among this demographic.
While that is a big number for the Liberals, it is down from where the party stood when it secured a majority government in 2014. Not since the spring of 2017 have the Liberals scored at least 80 per cent support in any poll among non-francophones.
This doesn't mean that the Liberals are on the brink of losing the non-francophone vote — far from it. The West Island in Montreal is in no danger of being painted anything but red in yet another election.
But while the Liberals' long-standing support among non-francophones — the anglophone community in particular — gives it a solid base and a higher seat floor than the other parties, it's an advantage with limits.
Non-francophones give Liberals a head start
There are nine ridings in Quebec in which anglophones make up at least one-quarter of the population. With the exception of Pontiac in the Outaouais region, all of them are located on the island of Montreal. In only one riding (Jacques-Cartier) do anglophones make up the majority.
But there are 19 ridings in which non-francophones — which includes those whose first language is neither English nor French — make up a majority of the population, with another 18 having at least a quarter of the population reporting a first language other than French. Most of these ridings are in Montreal but six are in Laval, five are in the Montérégie region, two are in the Outaouais and one is in northern Quebec.
If the Liberals manage 75 per cent of the vote among non-francophones and about 25 per cent among francophones, the demographic profile of Quebec's ridings alone would deliver them a majority of the vote in 19 ridings. They would have more than 40 per cent of the vote — virtually a guaranteed win with four major parties on the ballot — in 34 seats.
This means the Liberals start every election campaign with a head start. If they can manage even these modest levels of support, they can count on having a quarter of the province's seats in the bag. The Liberals would need to suffer a big drop in support among both francophones and non-francophones to fall below even 30 seats.
In recent elections in which the Liberals have won majority governments, the party did much better than this 75-25 split. In 2008, polls suggested the Liberals had 84 per cent support among non-francophones and 36 per cent among francophones. In 2014, it was 83 and 31 per cent support, respectively.
Though 31 per cent among francophones was relatively low in 2014, the Liberals benefited from the Parti Québécois and CAQ splitting the francophone vote about evenly.
What this means is that if the Liberals have a little over 80 per cent support among non-francophones, they only need about 30 per cent support among francophones in order to secure a majority government. That is not a particularly high bar for the party to meet.
Where the non-francophone vote makes the difference
But if the Liberals drop below 30 per cent among francophones — and especially if the francophone vote isn't equally divided between at least two other parties — their chances of winning drop dramatically. Currently, the party is awarded just 19 per cent support among francophones. Accordingly, the probability of the Liberals winning the most seats with that number is currently estimated at just four per cent.
When the Liberals were reduced to a minority government in 2007, the polls awarded them just 70 per cent support among non-francophones and 25 per cent among francophones. When they were defeated in 2012, the party's split was 61 and 21 per cent (though the polls somewhat underestimated Liberal support in that election).
Even a drop to the low-60s among non-francophones does not put any majority non-francophone ridings at risk for the Liberals — but it does put ridings with a non-francophone population of between 20 and 40 per cent in danger because the party's support among the majority francophone population might not be high enough to carry it across the finish line.
An opportunity missed for the CAQ
Earlier in the campaign, there were suggestions that Legault could make a minor breakthrough among non-francophones. The party rose to 17 per cent with that demographic in the Poll Tracker as the Liberals dipped below the 60 per cent mark in the first week of the campaign.
Subsequent polls have shown the Liberals re-gaining their support among non-francophones as the CAQ falls back. Legault's proposal to reduce immigration and impose values and language tests on immigrants might have called a halt to any potential gains the CAQ could have made among non-francophones — voters who could have carried a lot of weight in tight ridings in and around Montreal.
But that doesn't mean the English-language debate has little importance for anyone but Couillard. While it's unlikely that many non-francophones are liable to be swayed by the debate, they will not be the only people watching. According to Statistics Canada, about 49 per cent of Quebecers can understand English, which means a lot of francophones will be tuning in.
How the leaders perform in the debate — and what they reveal in their second language that they might have been able to avoid revealing in their first — could make waves among francophones and non-francophones alike. Anglophones don't decide elections in Quebec, but there's no reason why an English-language debate can't make a big difference.
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