Manitoba agri-food industry wary of potential trade war with U.S. as premiers close ranks
Premier Kinew calls for 'Team Canada' long-term economic strategy
An industry association representing more than 300 manufacturers in Manitoba's agri-food sector says it's concerned about escalating protectionist rhetoric as Canada's first ministers weigh how to hit back against U.S. threats.
On Wednesday, Justin Trudeau and 12 of the country's premiers including Manitoba's Wab Kinew, signed a communique in which they pledged to do all they can to stop Donald Trump from imposing punitive tariffs on Canadian goods.
The U.S.-president elect has vowed to slap a 25-per-cent levy on the imports.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said after the meeting Wednesday all options should be on the table as the country looks to retaliate. Alberta's Danielle Smith didn't sign the final communique.
Kinew said the meeting showed the leaders have forged a united front.
"I hope that there is Canadian pride in the fact that you can have Liberals and Conservatives and New Democrats and non-partisan leaders coming together," he said.
"I hope that that sense of pride … spills out in the broader society so that when you go to the store, that Canadian pride leads you to buy that made-in-Canada product. That when you make your big decisions, that you choose to make investments here."
Ahead of the summit, Kinew had called for a long-term economic strategy that puts "Team Canada" first and makes the country "one that builds things again."
But the potential of another trade war with the U.S. has some Manitobans on edge.
Michael Mikulak, CEO of Food & Beverage Manitoba, said the association's members would be "devastated" if Trump makes good on his threat.
He added that having both countries turn inward is dangerous.
"I think we need leaders that have the vision and are able to communicate the value of … internationalism, whether that's in trade, whether it's culture, diversity," Mikulak said.
"We need strong international relations, and a lot of those are underpinned by trade."
Forty-six per cent of Manitoba's total agri-food exports went to the U.S. in 2023, according to analysis from the province. That amounts to $4.53 billion in goods.
Mikulak said most companies in the sector don't even have a 25 per cent profit margin, and that they wouldn't have any other choice but to pass costs down to the consumer on both sides of the border.
He said even businesses that don't export to America will be impacted by disruptions in the supply chain.
'Nobody wins in a tariff war'
Shiu-Yik Au, an associate professor of finance at the University of Manitoba, said the uncertainty alone is having an effect on the province's businesses.
"Maybe they have to face a tariff or maybe they don't, and that's going to cause them to delay investment, cut back orders, hours for employees," he said.
"If you're a working Manitoban and you're working at a factory and your boss is worried about tariffs, you may not get as many hours, maybe not getting overtime anymore. You feel the pinch a little bit."
Au said it's hard to tell whether Trump will actually carry out his threats, but if he does, Canada must strike back.
The professor said the best approach is not to impose broad-based tariffs but to specifically target industries in Republican states where Trump draws most of his support.
"Places like Florida with oranges and fresh fruit … counter-tariffs. Or maybe hit Ohio — which is a swing state — with manufacturing tariffs," Au said.
"Unfortunately, it's painful for everyone. Nobody wins in a tariff war," he added.
"It's a question of who loses the most, and we need to make sure that it's clear to Mr. Trump that if there is going to be some sort of conflict like this, he's going to lose more than we will."
With files from Felisha Adam