Manitoba NDP now enjoys 6-point lead over PCs, Angus Reid poll suggests
September survey places NDP at 47% support, followed by PCs at 41% and Liberals at 9%
The New Democrats have opened up a lead over the Progressive Conservatives in Manitoba, according to a new popular opinion survey conducted by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute.
The NDP enjoyed a six-percentage-point advantage over the PCs across the province as the Oct. 3 provincial election approaches, suggests the survey of 990 Manitoban adults conducted from Sept. 13 to 19. Of the voters surveyed, 47 per cent intend to vote for the NDP, 41 per cent for the PCs and nine per cent for the Manitoba Liberals.
Within Winnipeg, home to a majority of the seats in the Manitoba Legislature, the NDP has a 22-percentage-point lead over the PCs, 53 to 31 per cent. Outside Winnipeg, the Tories have a 15-point advantage over the NDP, 53 to 38 per cent.
The poll suggests a shift in voter intention since June, when a Probe Research poll suggested a provincewide deadlock in party support.
"I think what the NDP is saying is is resonating a little bit more with Manitoba residents, certainly in Winnipeg, than Heather Stefanson and that six-point lead has has built itself up again. Things are probably looking pretty good for the NDP but there are still two weeks to go," said Dave Korzinski, research director for Angus Reid, speaking in a telephone interview from Kelowna, B.C.
The poll was conducted online among a representative, randomized sample of members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of three per cent.
The survey suggests a majority of voters in this election intend to vote against a party rather than for it. Angus Reid said 43 per cent of the Manitobans surveyed intend to cast a vote for a party or leader they really like, while 57 per cent intend to vote against another party or leader.
The poll suggests Manitoba voters are not overly enamoured with either NDP Leader Wab Kinew or PC Leader Heather Stefanson — but have a much more favourable view of Kinew.
The NDP leader is viewed favourably by 48 per cent of survey respondents, while Stefanson's favourability is 17 per cent. Both women and men have a more favourable view of the NDP leader, the survey suggests.
The favourability gap between Kinew and Stefanson has widened since the start of the formal election campaign, the survey suggests. When asked whether their opinion of Manitoba party leaders has improved, remained the same or declined in recent weeks, Kinew's favourability went up two percentage points, which is within the margin of error, while the drop for Stefanson was 21 percentage points.
"Kinew is kind of treading water whereas people are reacting negatively to what they see from Heather Stefanson," said Korzinski.
The favourability gap between the two leaders backs up the PC decision to allow other PC candidates to make policy announcements in place of Stefanson, he added.
"If you've got what would be an unpopular leader, statistically speaking, you might want to leverage some of those more charismatic individuals who are campaigning and try to say this is a team event."
Asked who would be the best premier, 34 per cent of survey respondents chose Kinew, 23 per cent selected Stefanson and 11 per cent said Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont would be optimal. Significantly, 21 per cent said none of the leaders would make the best premier.
Survey respondents were also asked which party they believed is the best overall choice to form Manitoba's next government. Angus Reid said 39 per cent chose the NDP, 33 per cent selected the PCs and seven per cent favoured the Liberals.
The survey also suggests the PCs and NDP acted prudently to make the cost of living and health care, respectively, the main planks in their election campaigns. Affordability ranked as the most important issue among those who took the poll, followed by health care and crime.
The survey suggests 37 per cent of Manitobans believe the PCs are better positioned to manage the economy, compared to 28 per cent for the NDP. It also suggests 40 per cent believe the NDP would serve as better stewards of health care, versus 27 per cent for the PCs.
The PCs had a slight edge over the NDP on crime, 33 to 29 per cent.
There is also potentially stark news for the PCs about voter retention. The survey suggests 91 per cent of Manitobans who supported the NDP in the 2019 provincial election intend to vote for the New Democrats again, while 80 per cent of the last election's PC voters intend to vote for Progressive Conservatives.
The margin of error for party-support subsamples is closer to five per cent, Korzinski said.
Stefanson and Kinew dismissed the poll, noting the only poll that matters takes place on election day.
Lamont also dismissed the poll and denounced the focus on opinion polls during election campaigns.
"If the only thing we're ever going to care about is polls, what the hell's the point of having a campaign? What the hell's the point of having a platform? What the hell's of point of having debates today?" he asked following a party leaders' debate at RBC Convention Centre.
Advance polls open in Manitoba on Saturday.
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