New funding in Manitoba budget likely not enough to please disenchanted voters

A provincial budget with a sprinkling of new financial commitments will probably not be enough to win over critics of Premier Heather Stefanson's government on its own.

Manitobans will want measurable results if the Progressive Conservatives, lagging considerably in opinion polls, are to regain their footing.

Voters may not be swayed by Tuesday's budget promising $110 million to help clear the massive surgical backlog — but they could be won over if their mother gets the hip surgery she's waited two years for.

They won't be as impressed with a politician declaring $9 million to boost intensive care capacity as they would be if they could feel certain their loved one will never be transferred to a hospital hours away from home.

It may be a tall ask of this government to win these voters back, but regaining someone's trust is rarely easy.

On Tuesday, the Progressive Conservative government took a step in that direction with a budget that aimed to please just about everyone.

Health care a top focus in budget

The spending plan will shore up arguably the government's biggest weakness through the pandemic — health care —with new funding. It also promised additional supports for long-term care, an area conspicuously absent from cash infusions in last year's budget.

The 2022 spending plan will extend tax relief for scores of Manitobans, ranging from big businesses with many employees to property owners and low-income renters.

Christopher Adams, adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, noted he couldn't find a new tax or a fee increase within the budget papers.

"It's a fairly friendly budget for Manitobans," he told CBC Manitoba's Up to Speed guest host Marjorie Dowhos on Tuesday.

The budget isn't all things to all people, of course. Unions and labour groups say the budget misses spending in vital areas, but it appears the budget does not intentionally antagonize people in the same way as the tight-fisted, sometimes controversial approach of Stefanson's predecessor, Brian Pallister, did.

The province can boost spending by $466 million (a 2.4 per cent increase) this year, all while slashing its forecast deficit by more than $1 billion, largely because of the federal government, which continues to pour more money into Manitoba.

The province is helped tremendously through a $610 million increase in transfers from Ottawa for a total of $6.25 billion.

Neither Stefanson nor Finance Minister Cameron Friesen would volunteer to praise the federal government, but it gave them the means to consider other priorities — specifically, tax relief.

They were both asked if a budget designed to help Manitoba recover from a debilitating health and economic crisis should come with tax cuts

The premier noted the government would now take until 2023, rather than 2022, to cut the education property tax from the 25 per cent reduction that took effect in 2021 to 50 per cent. 

"We did that for a reason because we're still in very difficult times, but we think we can walk and chew gum at the same time," Stefanson said, the latter an expression sometimes used by Pallister.

"We can make those significant investments in health care to tackle those diagnostic and surgical backlogs, as well as providing money to put back into the pockets of Manitobans."

Interestingly enough, the new money toward health care funding ($105 million) and the surgical backlog ($110 million) is less than the total money the province expects to forgo in 2022 through the education property tax rebate ($350 million).

Meanwhile, Friesen said too many people assume a government is a "one-speed bicycle," that can only accomplish one financial priority at a time.

"We simply think it's not correct to make Manitobans wait. We think that they need relief now. They need affordability now."

Budget doesn't combat gas prices

Despite vowing in his budget speech to combat "shockingly high" gas prices, Friesen's spending plan doesn't come close. The government will cut vehicle registration fees by $10 annually, which will barely help a driver to fill their tank, even once.

The province also isn't using soaring prices at the pump to push Winnipeggers onto transit buses, as no new money was promised. Manitoba backed out of the long-standing 50-50 funding arrangement with the city to fund Winnipeg Transit several years ago.

The budget continues the Tories' reluctance to spend any considerable money on heeding the warnings on climate change. The biggest new initiative in 2022 is $50 million to clean up abandoned mines, which will have no remarkable impact on emissions. 

When speaking with reporters, Stefanson said she saw her first budget as premier as "calming the waters," after a tumultuous pandemic shook up the province.

The public may desire such calmness after Pallister's time as premier, but a government trailing in the polls will likely need to make waves, particularly in the area of health care, to be re-elected in the fall of 2023.

A singular budget won't save a government that's treading water.