After soggy spring, Manitoba farmers anxiously looking ahead to fall

After a challenging spring, crop farmers in southwestern Manitoba are now anxiously watching the weather, hoping for a late fall frost to make up for a late harvest.

The industry overall is about 10 days to two weeks from harvest, said Keystone Agricultural Producers president Bill Campbell. Some outliers have already begun harvesting, while others are waiting to get on the field. 

"With the spring that we've had, we know that at this particular time we should be starting harvest, or maybe even possibly 25 per cent done," Campbell said.

The province's latest crop report, for the week ending Aug. 23, says on average, less than one per cent of the province's spring wheat, barley, and oats crops had been harvested to that point.

Campbell, who farms south of Brandon, says cold temperatures and heavy snows into March and April, followed by multiple Colorado lows and heavy rains in May, made it a challenge to get seed into the ground.

"The real telling tale will be when we get to harvest and start putting the bushels in the bin. That's essentially where we can tell what type of damage and what type of production losses we have suffered," Campbell said.

Kyle Cochrane, who farms west of Brandon, agrees.

"It should make for an interesting harvest, just to see how the crops come in," said the part owner of Cochrane Stock Farms, a family farm that's been operating for three generations.

"It was a challenge getting the crops in," Cochrane said. "We've seen some pretty good weather here in the last month, with some good heat, and some of the crops have been able to catch up."

But the late seeding has pushed everything on the farm back — including harvest. 

As that point gets later, the risks increase exponentially, Cochrane said. An early frost could damage the quality of a crop. He's even seen snow hamper harvest some years.

"Mother Nature always throws some challenges at us."

Corchrane's farm — which includes a cow-calf operation, a grain farm and a construction businesses — has embraced diversification in an effort to counter that unpredictability.

For people who aren't farmers, it can be difficult to appreciate the risks, and the costs, involved, he said.

"[We're] dealing with thousands of dollars … [and] at the end of the day, we're depending on what Mother Nature gives us."

'Feast or famine'

Jake Ayer has harvested just over 200 acres, or around 80 hectares, to date at his southwestern Manitoba farm near Minto, south of Brandon.

"We're pretty happy with the result so far. I know down here, and like most farmers across the province, I'd say we're about two-and-a-half to three weeks later than normal," Ayer said.

Late harvests are difficult because there is a narrow window of success in Manitoba — it is often a race against winter.

"It's really, really feast or famine. It seems it goes from one extreme to the next."

As a way to diversify and weather any adversities, Ayer's farm specializes in pedigreed seed production. He describes it as similar to breeding pedigree dogs — crops are papered and registered, and inspected to ensure they are purebred before being sold to other farmers.

Ayer has embraced a diverse rotation. In 2022 alone, his farm had more than a half-dozen different crop types. 

Late start 'pretty scary'

Fourth-generation farmer Jody Gerrard farms in Elphinstone, about 40 kilometres south of Riding Mountain National Park in western Manitoba. He says this spring was his latest-ever start to seeding.

"We're essentially a month behind," Gerrard said. "It's pretty scary."

While warmer weather over the summer has given the crops a bit of boost, he estimates they need at least another month of frost-free weather to see a successful harvest.

"Even with perfect weather … we're going to be harvesting all of October," Gerrard said.

However, "the crops look good. So we're hopeful."

Wheat and canola are the major players on Gerrard's farm, along with some field peas and flax. 

As part of adapting to an increasingly challenging market, the farm has invested in expanding its grain drying equipment as it has grown.

"We have always had grain drying equipment on the farm, but had to invest in bigger capacity," he said. 

But that creates another challenge, he said — while gasoline and diesel purchased by farm operations are exempt from the federal carbon tax, the propane they use to dry grain and heat barns is not.

As well, the federal government has started discussions on a proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizer use by 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030. That could also pose a challenge, said Gerrard.

"It's a direct correlation with fertilizers," he said, where cutting their use could lead to "less yield, [which] equals less food."

"That's a bigger concern to me than the late harvest."