Federal election 2025: Where change might come in Manitoba when Carney calls the election

As recently as early January, the Liberal Party of Canada was in danger of suffering its worst defeat in modern memory.

Then Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, Donald Trump initiated a trade war and Canadian voters suddenly stopped complaining about an unpopular prime minister and started worrying about a belligerent United States.

Now, the Liberals under new Prime Minister Mark Carney are enjoying a resurgence in popularity to the point where several polls suggest they've pulled within several points of Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. Support for the federal NDP and Bloc Québécois have plummeted.

The federal electoral picture has changed so dramatically that what was looking like a certain Conservative majority mere weeks ago is now in question. 

"Most voters are looking at this election as a binary choice between Poilievre and now Mark Carney," said Mary Agnes Welch, a partner at Winnipeg's Probe Research. "And I think that binary choice is now just kind of baked into the way we're thinking about federal politics in Manitoba and in the country."

As early as next weekend, Carney is expected to call a federal election in which he must overcome his own inexperience as a politician, prevent voters from remembering how much they disliked his party only weeks ago, and ignore the memory of the last two prime ministers who took over their party leadership and then headed into a disastrous general election.

In 1984, John Turner's Liberals were leading in the polls after he took over from Pierre Trudeau as prime minister. On election day, Turner was trounced by Brian Mulroney, whose Progressive Conservatives won the biggest majority in Canadian history.

In 1993, Kim Campbell's PCs were leading in the polls after she took over the PM's job from Mulroney. On election day, Jean Chrétien's Liberals reduced Campbell's PCs to two seats nationwide. Her party never recovered.

Eric Grenier, the electoral analyst behind thewrit.ca and CBC's Poll Tracker, said Turner and Campbell's electoral failures illustrate how ephemeral honeymoons may be for parties that change prime ministers midstream.

Trump's existential threat unprecedented

Nonetheless, there is no historical precedent for the existential threat Donald Trump poses right now to Canada.

"That changes the the conversation and it does allow the Liberals to hit a bit of a reboot button," Grenier said.

The question is whether Carney's Liberals will continue to enjoy a resurgence through an election campaign that will allow Canadians to get a better look at the rookie politician.

"It's challenging to maintain that kind of momentum, especially when it seems to be built on not that much, right? It's built on maybe Carney's reputation and his experience, but he still is a relatively unknown figure for a lot of Canadians," Grenier said.

For now, the Liberal resurgence in Manitoba means what is now Carney's party no longer seems to be in danger of being wiped off the electoral map. In this province, Liberals candidates are breathing easier, the NDP now faces an existential threat, and the Conservatives still have the best chance of expanding their footprint.

Here are the Manitoba seats most and least likely to change after an election expected this spring:

Greatest potential for change

Elmwood-Transcona: On paper, Winnipeg's easternmost riding ought to be an NDP stronghold. The New Democrats have won this riding in all but one election since it was formed in 1988.

However, NDP incumbent Leila Dance has only occupied this seat since September, when she narrowly defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds. The two will face off again this year.

Boundary changes to the riding offer a slight advantage to the Conservatives, as Elmwood-Transcona will no longer include a slice of North Kildonan in Winnipeg, and will expand east across the Red River Floodway to include the Dugald area.

The nationwide collapse in the NDP vote over the past two months gives Reynolds an even better chance of winning his rematch with Dance.

Winnipeg South:  Winnipeg South is a perfect bellwether. Starting in 1988 when this riding assumed its modern form, the party that won the most seats on election night also won this seat. 

Three months ago, when Poilievre's Conservatives had a huge lead over the Liberals, incumbent MP Terry Duguid appeared to be in trouble. He has since been named to cabinet twice — first by Trudeau and then by Carney — and the Liberals have bounced back dramatically in the polls.

Duguid faces a challenge from Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte, who was a cabinet minister in Heather Stefanson's provincial PC government before she was defeated by the NDP's Billie Cross in 2023. 

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: This southeast Winnipeg seat is also something of a bellwether but is far less fickle than Winnipeg South when it comes to flipping back and forth between the Liberals and Conservative parties. On two occasions since 1988, a Liberal has won here even though the party did not form a government. 

Former Festival du Voyageur director Ginette Lavack is trying to hold the seat for the Liberals following the retirement of Dan Vandal. Conservative candidate Shola Agboola, who finished second to Vandal in 2021, will try to steal it away. 

Less potential for change

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski: NDP MP Niki Ashton has won five consecutive elections in Manitoba's northernmost riding, which the NDP has won 12 times during the past 15 elections.

Given this history, Ashton was a lock to win again before her party's popularity began to slide. The NDP's current misfortune has created an opportunity for both the Liberals and Conservatives — should either party get around to nominating a candidate.

Kildonan-St. Paul: Conservative MP Raquel Dancho is seeking her third victory in this Winnipeg-area riding, which has voted Conservative six times during the past seven elections. Her main challenge will come from Liberal candidate Thomas Naaykens.

Winnipeg Centre: Three months ago, this was the safest orange seat in Manitoba. Then the NDP plummeted in the polls.

MP Leah Gazan is trying to win her third election in this inner-city Winnipeg riding, which has voted NDP eight times during the nine elections since it was reformed in 1997. The Liberals have nominated Rahul Walia, a federal party staffer.

Winnipeg North: Liberal incumbent Kevin Lamoureux has been a fixture in Winnipeg North since he won a 2010 byelection necessitated by former MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis's decision to run for mayor. Lamoureux even won here in 2011 when the Liberals were reduced to 34 seats nationwide.

Conservative candidate Rachel Punzalan could be more competitive in Winnipeg North than her deep-blue predecessors have been in the past. She does not appear to be getting much help from the NDP, which has yet to nominate a candidate.

Winnipeg South Centre: In this historic stronghold for what is now Mark Carney's party, Liberal candidates have won in all but one election since the riding assumed its modern form in 1988. The only Conservative victory took place in 2011, when Liberal support cratered. 

This year, Winnipeg South Centre incumbent Ben Carr will face Conservative challenger Royden Brousseau. 

Winnipeg West: What used to go by the unwieldy name of Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley will soon be known as Winnipeg West. Along with the name change, this riding will expand its boundaries, welcoming voters in the RM of Rosser and residents of Tuxedo in Winnipeg. 

Conservative Marty Morantz has represented this moderately conservative riding since 2019. Former Liberal MP Doug Eyolfson, who lost a squeaker to Morantz in 2021, is taking another stab at winning this riding back — but would need to improve upon his results from four years ago.

Name change only

Riding Mountain: Thanks to electoral boundary changes, the former riding of Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa will become the only riding in Canada with the word "riding" in its name.

Riding Mountain will incorporate all of the former riding and expand southeast to include the Municipality of Norfolk Treherne, Long Plain First Nation, Dakota Plains First Nation and a few tiny parcels of the RM of Portage la Prairie.

Conservative MP Dan Mazier is not expected to face a significant challenge in this very conservative riding.

Least potential for change

Brandon-Souris: Conservative MP Larry Maguire will attempt to win his fifth election in this southwestern Manitoba riding, which has been won by conservative parties 25 times during the past 26 elections.

Portage-Lisgar: Conservative MP Branden Leslie will attempt to win his second election in this south-central Manitoba riding, which has never elected anyone other than conservative candidates, be they Reform, Canadian Alliance or Conservative.

Provencher: Conservative MP Ted Falk will try to win his fifth election in this southeastern Manitoba riding, which has voted for conservative candidates 16 times during the past 18 elections.

Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman: Conservative MP James Bezan is seeking his ninth victory in this central Manitoba riding, which has never elected anyone other than conservative candidates since it was reconstituted in 1997.