Leaders worry about Manitoba's economy as hopes for high immigration numbers unravel
Cut to provincial nominee program called 'short-sighted' as businesses brace for hiring woes
This story is part of Welcome to Canada, a CBC News series about immigration told through the eyes of the people who have experienced it.
Cheryl Digby was touring a string of prospective immigrants through her sewing factory in southern Manitoba, when one guest left her surprised.
Lasitha Pathirana, a Sri Lankan looking to immigrate to Morden, Man., picked up a piece of fabric and identified the weave instantly. He spoke about the right materials to protect the wearer from fires and he knew the names of her company's suppliers.
"There was a moment when I realized that this guy that's touring our factory knows as much or more than I do about flame-resistant textiles," Digby said.
It turns out, Pathirana was the manager of a similar factory in his home country. He came across Digby's factory on an exploratory visit to Morden in spring 2023 and hoped a job there could be his ticket to permanent residency in Canada.
"I think it all came as God's gift," said Pathirana, now operations manager at that Morden factory. "I strongly believe that."
Stories of newcomers filling critical job shortages are about to become more rare in Manitoba, and the impacts on the province's economy will have far-reaching implications.
The federal Liberal government is clamping down on the country's immigrant admission targets across all streams — ranging from permanent residents to international students and foreign workers — because it says it wants to ease the housing crisis that's largely afflicting Canada's largest cities.
It's also pausing new sponsorship applications for parents and grandparents, as well as refugees.
While these cutbacks are unfolding, Manitoba has been lobbying the federal government for an exemption so it can bring in more immigrants, not fewer. The province said newcomers are needed to fill vacancies in some industries, including manufacturing and agriculture.
But it seems those concerns were dismissed.
Cuts short-sighted: Prof
Ottawa cut the provincial nominee program — a popular Manitoba immigration stream — in half, igniting worries the province's economy will be harmed without the arrival of potentially thousands of newcomers who would have filled jobs.
Lori Wilkinson, a University of Manitoba sociology professor who is the Canada Research Chair in migrant futures, said the federal Liberals' decision is short-sighted.
"Our reality is that we can absorb more newcomers than we used to, and now, at a time when we need more newcomers, we're being told to cut back," she said.
Wilkinson said businesses struggling to find staff will raise wages to find workers, which is good news for the employees, but "the bad news is that somebody has to pay, and it's always the consumer — we'll be paying more for our goods and services."
WATCH | Manitobans alarmed by sharp immigration cuts:
The effects on the economy will be widespread, she predicts.
"When we start cutting back, that means our GDP is going to decline as well. And if we look at some of the other economic threats that we're facing, like from the United States with increased tariffs, we could be heading into an economic recession fairly shortly," she said.
The provincial nominee program is receiving 4,750 nominee slots in 2025, which is half of what it got last year. Each principal applicant can bring a spouse and any dependants with them.
In 2024, over 70 per cent of Manitoba's more than 23,000 immigrants were associated with the provincial nominee program — a far greater percentage than other jurisdictions.
Speaking before the announcement of Manitoba's provincial nominee quota, Bram Strain, president of the Business Council of Manitoba, said Manitoba could handle cuts to other immigration streams so long as its nominee program, which it founded in the late 1990s, was unscathed.
He said the nominee program ensures Manitoba gets a fair share of economic migrants, as the people coming through the federal program largely settle in Canada's largest centres.
Without as many skilled workers moving to Manitoba, businesses "may decide to expand or capital may decide to go elsewhere, where it can make money and where people are perhaps more plentiful," Strain said.
Prior to the federal announcement, Strain said he was confident Liberal MPs in Manitoba were receptive to the province lobbying to protect its nominee program.
However, Kevin Lamoureux, Liberal member of Parliament for Winnipeg North, said Manitoba cannot realistically ask for more immigrants when every other province is coping with fewer.
"There's no doubt in my mind that we have to look at ways in which we can pause the population growth for a number of different economic reasons that's to the benefit of all Canadians, including people in Manitoba," he said in an interview earlier in January.
Up in Thompson, businesses already dealing with severe labour shortages, despite relying on immigration programs for some staff, worry their challenges will get worse.
Ethel Timbang, general manager of the Best Western Hotel, is approaching a fully booked February without enough housekeepers to clean rooms.
She's worried she may have to turn away guests and direct them to other accommodations.
"If we don't have enough housekeeping for the day, we close our rooms," she said.
In the past, she's cleaned rooms herself and she makes a point of training her staff about other areas of the business, such as the front desk, housekeeping and laundering.
At two other Thompson hotels, Ravi Kumbharathi said he doesn't have the staff to run a bar and he worries he may have to further scale down operations at the Burntwood Hotel and Thompson Inn.
"Most vulnerable is my restaurant business, which needs ongoing staff, like cooks, servers, cleaners."
No formal training in Canada
Back in Morden, Digby said her ability to grow her sewing and safety apparel businesses depends on immigrants.
Newcomers comprise 85 per cent of the nearly 20 people working at Deasil Custom Sewing and Keltek Safety Apparel. There's no formal training for industrial sewing machine operators in Canada, she said.
"Those people all either have to be trained on the job, or they come to us with the skill set from another country."
In the last year, the businesses received 40 job applications — and only three of them were Canadian-born individuals, none of whom were qualified.
Pathirana said the success of his new livelihood is contingent on more immigrants making the same decision he did.
"It's very important that we encourage people to come to Canada," he said.
Provincial Immigration Minister Malaya Marcelino said in a statement Friday that she'd explore all options to ensure Manitoba welcomes enough immigrants.
She previously told CBC News she'd lobby for Manitoba to receive a higher proportion of the newcomers receiving permanent residency through In-Canada Focus, a new immigration stream controlled by the federal government.
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