Diabolical or not, Manitoba leadership race stage takes shape

"Rebellious NDP MLA Theresa Oswald" is now "Leadership Contender Theresa Oswald."

For weeks, speculation has been rampant that she would declare and today she did. 

• Theresa Oswald enters Manitoba NDP leadership race

Many insiders in the party lining up on Premier Greg Selinger's side of the March leadership race - including Selinger himself - say the rebels set the NDP up for a possible death blow from the Tories in the next election. 

In their resignation news conference, the rebels accused Selinger of putting his leadership ambitions over the good of Manitobans. 

Now Oswald is being accused of the same. 

"This isn't about ambition, or personal rivalry," Oswald said defending her run. "This is about protecting everything we've fought for." 

Some have accused the rebels of a co-ordinated attack that has been in the works for weeks, if not months. 

At the beginning of the mutiny, around the end of October, I asked Oswald if she was mobilizing a leadership campaign to topple Selinger. She said it would be "wholly disrespectul" to be working behind the scenes to unseat the leader. 

Oswald said the rebllion that went public was the result of months and months of failed background negotiations, presumably to have Selinger leave gracefully. 

"It was not part of a diabolical plan to lead to this leadership," Oswald said Friday, as she filed her paperwork to enter the race. "I've come to this conclusion only as a result of these hundreds of conversations that I've had with people."

Some aren't buying it and for good reason. Oswald's campaign looks well put together already. 

Several high-profile New Democrats have spoken out in favour of Oswald in the past week. 

Plus, she's scooped up more than a few of Selinger's key political staffers and top communicators to run her campaign. 

They did so at some professional risk. 

An internal memo from the premier's acting chief of staff, dated Dec. 9, was sent to political staff encouraging them to get involved with the leadership race because it was good experience. 

At a meeting the day prior, staffers were publicly told it didn't matter whose leadership bid they joined. 

Privately though, there is worry about repercussions for supporting a losing candidate. 

However some tell me they don't care. 

Leadership run 'talked about for years:' MLA

NDP MLA Dave Gaudreau said Oswald decided long ago she would run. 

He asserts that Oswald has been planning "for quite some time in the background." 

He scoffs at the fact that Oswald "played coy" with the media about her intentions to run for leader.

Gaudreau said it's "dishonest and backhanded" for Oswald to say she hasn't been planning this run all along.

"It's completely false and misleading," Gaudreau said. "She had leadership ambitions. In an email to me she even admitted that it's been talked about for years." 

For now, Gaudreau is backing Selinger, because "he's the leader."

As with most things, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. 

Did Oswald expect she would run against Selinger if it came to that? Probably. 

Did anyone expect Selinger to cling to power so ferociously? Perhaps not. 

But now, both leadership candidates have chosen their path. 

In March, New Democrat delegates will decide whose path they prefer.