Here's why some Manitobans are changing their vote in this election

As Cassidy Klassen gets ready to cast her ballot in Manitoba's upcoming provincial election, she's thinking about breaking tradition. 

The 22-year-old from Winkler, Man., has voted for the province's Progressive Conservatives in the past, but this time around she's leaning more left.

"I look on each of the political party websites and what I noticed is that I don't align with the group that I usually vote for," said Klassen, who is studying education at Brandon University. 

Klassen is one of nine voters living outside Winnipeg who shared their thoughts as part of a focus group on this provincial election.

CBC Manitoba collaborated with Probe Research to learn more about voters' opinions and get a sense of where they stand on issues. The polling company identified potential participants from its panel and then randomly selected nine people to ensure a mix of people reasonably representative of Manitoba's demographics.

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This focus group was made up of voters from a number of ridings: Brandon East, Springfield-Ritchot, Agassiz, Midland and Dawson Trail.

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Four of the nine voters raised their hand when asked how many people were looking to change their vote this year. Another participant said she'd like to change her vote, but doesn't have a candidate representing the party she favours in her riding. 

Klassen points to the current government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic as a deciding issue for her during this election campaign. Another was education funding. Klassen said she's heading into the field and noticed teachers needing more help in the classroom. 

"That's a big issue for me," she said. 

Kristian Shostak, from Oakbank, is also looking at changing his vote when he heads to the polls in the riding of Springfield-Ritchot. 

Shostak said he has typically voted for the Progressive Conservatives — who are seeking a third consecutive term — but is leaning another way this time around. 

"I really have a distaste from things that have been done for the last few years," he said. 

The Progressive Conservative government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic left voter Diana Neuman feeling frustrated.

"I feel very strongly about all of the freedoms that were taken away from us over the last several years and that can't happen again," she said. 

Neuman said she is planning on voting for the Progressive Conservatives, but only because there isn't a Keystone Party of Manitoba candidate running in the Dauphin riding, where she's based.

 The new party is only fielding five candidates.

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Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor in political studies at the University of Manitoba, said he's not surprised to hear of people rethinking how they'll vote. 

"Over the past, you know, 30 or 40 years, Canadians as well as Manitobans have become less connected to their political party," he said.

"People who are generation X or younger, they've shown themselves a little more volatile in terms of their party preferences. That is, if their favourite party is a party that misbehaves, or they feel they don't like what they've done, then they're willing to shop around." 

Adams said while focus groups are useful at offering insight into how people are reacting to certain issues, they aren't good for generalizing to the population in question.  

"Focus groups are kind of getting a slice of the life of people in the room and being able to explore topics," said Adams. 

A Probe Research poll from June suggests the Progressive Conservatives and the Manitoba NDP were tied in popularity. 

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As the Oct. 3 election approaches, Adams will be looking to see what the next poll says about seats in Winnipeg and where women voters are drifting.

"For the PCs to hold on to power, they need Winnipeg women to come back to their fold and support them," said Adams. 

While Adams said the majority of the province's 57 seats are in Winnipeg, he is watching to see what happens in ridings outside the capital city, including Dauphin, Brandon East, Interlake-Gimli and Selkirk.

"Selkirk does not have an incumbent and it has gone back and forth between the parties over the years," said Adams.  

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Shostak said he'll be looking to see more details around how parties plan to make promises happen. He points to the NDP's pledge to reopen emergency rooms at Winnipeg's Concordia, Seven Oaks and Victoria hospitals as an example. 

"How is it actually going to be done?" he said.

Andy Woodsworth, who lives in the riding of Dawson Trail, isn't thinking about changing his vote. He said while he's grown more cynical about politics in recent years, he will likely watch the Manitoba leaders' debate scheduled for Sept. 21. 

"I'll be looking for something sincere," said Woodsworth. "I'm hanging my hat on that hope, that somebody is going to say something that comes across as sincere and not just political rhetoric."