NDP faces a fight to keep London North Centre orange

Jack Spence is the kind of voter who wouldn't want to see his home riding of London North Centre turn PC blue — but if polls are correct, it's a possibility. 

An engineer and father of three, Spence is leaning toward the NDP this time around, not overly happy with the record of Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives on some of the issues important to him like climate change, transit, health care and the housing crisis.

"I vote strategically against the conservatives and in my riding. I look toward the NDP for that," he said.  

The question this time around in the riding of London North Centre, is whether or not there are enough voters like Spence for the NDP to hang on to a seat they've held since 2018, when incumbent Terence Kernaghan took it from the Liberals. 

Challenging Kernaghan for the second time is PC candidate Jerry Pribil, a London city councillor and downtown restaurant owner. First-time candidate Tariq Khan is running for the Liberals, and Carol Dyck is the Green Party candidate.

Speaking Tuesday on CBC's London Morning, polling expert Éric Grenier said the NDP will have a tougher fight this time keep London North Centre and the other two downtown London ridings they hold: London West and London-Fanshawe. 

"The NDP is going to have to play defence because their vote has come down," said Grenier.

Kernaghan: PCs don't want to talk about their record

Speaking to CBC News while door-knocking in the Carling neighbourhood, Kernaghan conceded he might have a tougher fight this time around than he did in 2022, when he beat Pribil by 4,000 votes. Back then, Pribil hadn't yet won his council seat and was not as well known. 

"Right now people are saying it's neck and neck with myself and the Conservatives but we're hitting every door," said Kernaghan. "It's a little slower in the cold weather, and this election is taking people by surprise."

To try and bolster the NDP's chances, NDP leader Marit Stiles paid a visit to Kernaghan's campaign office yesterday afternoon. She repeated what has become an NDP mantra in this winter election: that Ford has used the threat of U.S. tariffs as an excuse to call an unnecessary election. 

This election is taking people by surprise.- NDP incumbent Terence Kernaghan

Kernaghan said meeting voters at the door, he's hearing about health care and housing, not Trump and Tariffs. 

"If tariffs were the real threat, Doug Ford wouldn't have quit his job," said Kernaghan, referring to Ford's decision to call an early election with more than a year left on his mandate. "We should be at the legislature right now." 

Kernaghan also took a shot at Pribil, questioning why his campaign has decided not to take part in any all-candidates debates.

"Rather than talk about their record, I think it's easier for them to tuck tail, run, and hide their heads in the sand," said Kernaghan. 

Pribil: Prefers meeting voters at the door

Pribil's campaign confirmed to CBC News Tuesday they won't be doing any all-candidates meetings in this election, saying they've been invited to 18 in total and don't have time to attend them in what is a compressed campaign. 

Speaking to CBC News while going door-to-door in the area of Sunningdale and Adelaide Streets, Pribil said he prefers to meet voters in person. 

"I have good debates and conversations at the door, and I prefer to ask them what's on their mind what are their concerns," said Pribil.

Pribil said safety, security, the economy and the threat of U.S. tariffs are the top issues he's hearing about while canvassing.

A key message he's taking to voters is that a PC win in the riding would give London a seat at the table should the Ford PCs again form government. 

 "We need a strong voice at Queen's Park to fight for us, to deliver results for London," said Pribil. 

Khan: Liberals can deliver where NDP haven't

Liberal candidate Tariq Kahn said he hopes to bleed support away from Kernaghan, saying having an NDP MPP hasn't helped lower-income people keep up with the cost of living. 

"Students are frustrated by the student loans program and I'm hearing desperate stories from people on ODSP," said Khan, referring to the Ontario Disability Support Program, which is often criticized as underfunded. Khan said his party's plans are costed out in more depth and detail than the NDP's. 

"They have great slogans, but we can close the circle and deliver," he said.

Greens: Not a threat to vote split

Carol Dyck is running in her fifth election for the Green Party, her third time provincially. Speaking to CBC News in between visits to homes in Kipps Lane, she said the cold weather is a challenge. 

"We can't get some of our volunteers out to knock on doors because it is so slippery," she said. "And we move a lot slower on that ice, so we focus a lot more on apartments." 

As for whether the Greens' message is getting any traction, Dyck said she sees the party as a rising star in Ontario politics.

"A lot of the other parties are about advocating for their parties and the Greens are about advocating for their ridings," she said. 

Asked whether a strong Green campaign in London North Centre could help the PCs by stealing votes from the NDP, Dyck said it's unlikely. 

"I can never win over NDP votes, it does not happen," said Dyck. "When I get voters in my direction it's either disenfranchised Liberals or Conservatives."

Voters head to the polls on Feb. 27.