Carney, Singh stage duelling rallies in London as Liberals look to flip NDP stronghold

With only a weekend to go until election day, Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh shifted their attention to London, Ont., on Friday, ending the campaign's final week with duelling events in ridings that have incumbents from the other's party.

Singh's event on Friday evening at London Brewing Co-operative marked his second campaign visit to the core area riding of London Centre, while Carney's rally an hour later at Fanshawe College was his first to London—Fanshawe, the NDP stronghold that polling suggests will be a battleground riding on Monday.

"I think it's just really important that we show our support, and we get out there and talk to everybody to make sure that they vote. But I'm still nervous," said London resident Tiffany Hillman, one of several hundred people attending the Carney event, staged in an expansive room in the college's 'C' Building.

Carney arrived at the college at about 7:30 p.m. from Cambridge, after stopping in Georgetown and Sault Ste. Marie earlier in the day, and was introduced on the stage by his wife, Diana Fox Carney.

"We're at a college, a place of education, excitement, engagement, and ... empowerment. You get a quiz every once in a while, so I have a question," Carney told the crowd. "Who's ready? Who's ready to stand up for Canada with me?"

"I feel pretty confident" about Carney's chances, said Alex Harrington, a Western University student and first-time voter, acknowledging that, like Hillman, he's still a bit nervous about Monday.

"I know every time I look at the national polls, the lead narrows a little bit. I know [U.S. President Donald] Trump just made some more comments about the whole 51st state stuff, so that tends to help, at least with the Liberals."

Liberals targeting NDP ridings

As the election campaign nears the finish line, the Liberals have been targeting orange ridings to draw away NDP support and secure a majority. The New Democrats, meanwhile, have been working to shore up support to save existing seats and avoid potentially losing official party status.

London—Fanshawe, which has been represented by the NDP for nearly 20 years, appears to be one of the ridings the Liberals believe they have a shot at flipping in their quest for majority status.

NDP incumbent Lindsay Mathyssen, who is seeking a third term, won 43 per cent of the vote in 2021. However, recent polling suggests the race this time could be a toss-up between the NDP and Liberals, poll analyst Éric Grenier told CBC Radio's London Morning on Friday.

For Grenier, who runs CBC's Poll Tracker, the riding will be one to watch on election night.

"Whether it is an NDP vote, a vote for Mathyssen, or is it a vote that's just going to be an anti-Conservative vote, in which case the Liberals might pick it up," he said. "If the NDP is able to hold on, stay to official party status, 12 seats, it's probably because they won a seat like London—Fanshawe."

Grenier said he believes the New Democrats still have a good shot of holding the riding, something that can't be said of many other ridings the party holds, he added. As of Friday morning, CBC's Poll Tracker showed the party polling at 8.6 per cent, with victories projected in fewer than 12 seats if an election were held that day.

More red Liberal signs have been popping up in the London—Fanshawe neighbourhood of Becky and Mike O'Neil compared with previous years, when it would be mostly orange NDP signs.

"It's kind of crazy to think that she wouldn't be the MP there anymore, if, you know, the Liberals do get in. It's kind of nerve-racking," Becky said. "I do really support Lindsay, and I know she's very strong, and she has a lot of our support from our neighbourhood."

Singh makes case at rally

As the Liberals take aim at London—Fanshawe, Singh's focus on Friday was London Centre, formerly London North Centre, where he arrived after stops in Toronto and Hamilton. Liberal Peter Fragiskatos is looking for re-election there, having represented London North Centre since 2015.

"This is the last stretch of this campaign, and so we got to get a couple of things straight. Talk about the elephant in the room. I know a lot of people are wondering about strategic voting," Singh told the crowd.

"I get it, you're worried about Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. We are, too. We don't want them in. Here's the good news. Pierre is not winning this thing."

Voting for the NDP, Singh said, was the only way to prevent a Liberal majority and a Conservative opposition, which would be "the worst of Carney and the worst of Conservatives."

Singh has claimed the Liberals want to cut upwards of $28 billion in operating spending, money he said could come in part from provincial health transfers. Carney has said he doesn't plan to cut health-care spending, and the Liberal platform mentions maintaining provincial and personal federal transfers.

A supporter in every election since 1975, Londoner Susan Smith expressed confidence in the NDP, despite the lagging polls, and brought along her Canadian Dental Care Plan card for Singh to sign. "I turn 70 in a couple of months," she said. "I wouldn't dream of giving my vote to anybody else."

For Tari Ajadi, an assistant professor of political science at McGill University in Montreal, the decision by the NDP to hold a rally in London Centre instead of London—Fanshawe was interesting, given that projections from polling aggregator 338Canada.com suggest that it's a safe Liberal seat.

The New Democrats are firmly in "save the furniture kind of mode" and need to keep the east London riding and others from flipping if they want to maintain official party status, he said.

"Perhaps Singh is seeing something in his internal polling that suggests maybe the NDP has a shot in that riding. I'm not really certain, to be honest," Ajadi said. It's unclear why the party held the rally in London Centre, though the brewery is located near the riding's boundary with London—Fanshawe.

"Nevertheless, I still think that even if the rally is being held in one riding, the point is that, regionally speaking, a presence of Singh is important," he said.