Hamilton·Analysis

This session at Queen's Park — A lot happened and little changed: Fisher

It's summer break at Queen's Park and CBC's Ontario political analyst Robert Fisher talks about what has changed and what has not since the September when the session began.

Robert Fisher's Ontario political analysis appears here every two weeks

Despite all the announcements in recent weeks - lower hydro rates, minimum wage boost, high-speed rail - the provincial Liberals seem to be stuck in the same place they were last September.

It's summer break at Queen's Park and CBC's Ontario political analyst Robert Fisher talks about what has changed and what has not since September, when the session began.

Fisher spoke with the CBC's Craig Norris about the last several months and a summer on the campaign trail for party leaders. Listen to the full interview by clicking the image at the top of the page, or read an edited and abridged transcript below.

Robert Fisher, Ontario politics analyst 

Veteran political analyst Robert Fisher delivers his insights into Ontario politics every two weeks. (CBC)

How different are things now than they were in September at the beginning of this last session of parliament?

The more things change, the more they stay the same. In September the Liberals were in a slump and the Premier was very unpopular. That hasn't changed. Hydro was an issue then. It still is even with the passage yesterday of the Fair Hydro bill that will bring about a 24 per cent rate cut. Patrick Brown was and is popular in the polls. He was struggling with a party divided with questions about who he is and what he stands for, questions about his social conservative past and nagging questions about his party's nomination process. This morning little has changed there. 

And in September, Andrea Horwath was working to define herself and the party. She came up with plans on Pharmacare and hydro. She's been up and down in the polls and still finds herself trying to remind voters she is part of the political equation. 

It's a busy last two weeks with a lot of announcements including high speed rail, minimum wage increase and the hydro rate cut. Is this Premier Wynne in full campaign mode?

Absolutely. I think we've seen more announcements over the last few weeks from the Liberals than we have seen rain. Wynne, and all those around her are saying none of this has to do with an election which is now a year away. It was just four months ago that she told the CBC's Mike Crawley that she was happy with incremental increases to the minimum wage. She wasn't interested in moving to the $15 per hour mark but now she says she's all about a fairer Ontario.

The plan is either loved or hated but people are asking where were you four months ago? Where were the Liberals 14 years ago? The problems that exist for people living now on minimum wage existed then. 

You mentioned Patrick Brown. This week it wasn't clear if he kicked out Jack MacLaren from the party or MacLaren left on his own accord. What happened there?

Brown and his staff indicate to me that there is still a learning curve. MacLaren was expelled for a 2012 video in which he talked about French language rights and that the Tories had, in my words not his, a kind of 'hidden agenda' that they would deal with when in power. It turns out he quit the party on Friday, two days before the Brown announcement, to join the Trillium party. It's not the first time he's been in hot water. It seems he has a penchant for opening his mouth and rearranging his foot. He became an embarrassment and had to go but the Tories tried to make it seem they were proactive when in fact MacLaren had already printed up campaign literature for the Trillium Party. In his Eastern Ontario riding he will likely split the vote and may allow a Liberal candidate to win in a riding that is already federally Liberal.

What do you expect this summer will look like for the leaders?

It's going to be a busy summer. MPP's won't be back until September. That's more than the three weeks they're going to get under the provincial legislation. Leaders will be out and about across the province. They'll get the pancake and barbecue circuit, shake a lot of hands and test drive messages. It's even a dry run on simple election tasks like getting the leader from point A to point B and making sure that when the leader arrives there's a crowd there and they are excited. There's nobody taking time off this summer.