Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: 'Up in the air' or NDP mainstay? Political experts divided on future of riding

This is the first of five Hamilton riding profiles ahead of the provincial election on June 2. Read all of CBC Hamilton's election coverage here. 

For years Hamilton East—Stoney Creek has been a riding Ontario's New Democrats could safely expect to win, but a political expert says a recent controversy involving the incumbent being ousted by the party may have put that win in jeopardy for the NDP. 

"This one is really up in the air ... that's the one [riding] that will be the most hotly contested," said Peter Graefe, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University.

That said, Clifton van der Linden, another assistant professor of political science at McMaster and founder of Vox Pop Labs (the makers of Vote Compass), thinks it'll stay an NDP riding.

"If current trends in polling hold, we can expect Hamilton to be awash in orange come Election Day in Ontario," he said.

Here's what you need to know about the riding. 

Who's running?

• Paul Miller (Independent) — incumbent
• Zaigham Butt (NDP)
• Jason Farr (Liberals)
• Neil Lumsden (Progressive Conservatives)
• Cassie Wylie (Green Party)
• Jeff Raulino (New Blue Ontario)
• Domenic DiLuca (Ontario Party)
• Cameron Rajewski (Electoral Reform Party)

Riding snapshot

The riding's boundaries are between the Niagara Escarpment and Lake Ontario. It runs roughly east of Kenilworth Avenue North, continuing to Stoney Creek, past Winona, ending just past Fifty Road near Grimsby.

It spans 76 kilometres.

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek was created in 2003 by merging the old ridings of Hamilton East and Stoney Creek and was first contested in 2007.

The riding had 84,088 eligible voters in 2018 according to Elections Ontario data. Of those, some 53 per cent voted.

According to the 2016 census, the average size of a family in the riding is three people. About half of the people living in the riding are married and the median age is 44. 

Most listed English as their mother tongue, but there were thousands of Punjabi, Slavic language and Italian speakers as well.

Why it's one to watch

Incumbent Paul Miller has held the seat since 2007 for the NDP but was ousted from the party in March, making him an independent.

The NDP alleged Miller has a "pattern of troubling behaviour" that indicated he may "harbour Islamophobic, homophobic and racist views."

Miller denies the allegations and filed a $1.3-million lawsuit against the party and NDP leader Andrea Horwath (a candidate in Hamilton Centre) alleging discrimination, conspiracy and breach of contract.

With the riding potentially up for grabs, party leaders have taken notice, with visits at the start of the campaign right into its final week.

"I guess the question is how much of a wild card is Paul Miller's run?" Graefe said.

"Do we ultimately have pretty much a four-way race here in which case … all bets are off."

But van der Linden thinks it isn't that tight of a race, given running as an independent puts you at a disadvantage.

"The question will be whether a critical mass of voters feel he was treated unfairly when he was ejected from the party and if that translates into votes lost for the NDP," he said.

"I don't think the NDP's strategy on dropping Miller was really about Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, but rather the avoidance of negative optics in the broader provincial race."

What have voters told us?

Readers from this riding who responded to CBC Hamilton's election survey said their top concerns were affordability, health care and the environment.

"Address the housing affordability in Hamilton, our own kids are getting pushed out a city they grew up in," wrote one respondent.

Another person said: "'I'm on ODSP for depression but I can't easily afford psychotherapy/talk therapy which was recommended on my last discharge from the hospital."

Rob Hill, a voter in the riding, previously told CBC Hamilton the cost of living was his top issue.

"The cost of living has gone up, rent, everything like that. But these people that are on disability or can't work at all, they haven't seen a dime increase," he said.

About the candidates

Paul Miller — Independent (Incumbent)

Miller was first elected as MPP in 2007 and since that election, he has won by wide margins. The most recent election in 2018 saw him win by over 9,800 votes, even though he found himself in controversy then too.

Before being MPP, Miller served as a Stoney Creek city councillor for two terms.

Despite no longer being a New Democrat, Miller still has support from United Steel Workers Local 1005, which represents hundreds of Stelco workers and pensioners.

Zaigham Butt — NDP

Butt was announced as the NDP candidate after Miller was kicked out of the party.

Butt is an accountant, the recipient of last year's Order of Hamilton and is the son of NDP riding association president Zahid Butt.

His website also states he was the director of a local non-profit organization which worked with food banks.

Butt has had federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and former Hamilton East—Stoney Creek MP Wayne Marston endorse him and on Thursday, the Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation endorsed him and the other NDP candidates in Hamilton.

Jason Farr — Liberal

Ward 2 Coun. Jason Farr is running for the Liberals. He won't be getting his council salary while he campaigns, he said.

He has been a councillor since 2010 and was a broadcaster before that. 

Farr said friends, including former mayors Bob Bratina and Larry Di Ianni, encouraged him to run for a spot at Queen's Park.

Liberal leader Steven Del Duca visited Hamilton near the start of the campaign to rally support for the party and Farr.

During the Cable 14 debate, Farr's motion as a councillor to have encampments cleared within 12 to 72 hours of the city being notified was criticized by Butt.

When asked about how he'll support people experiencing homelessness as an MPP, he pointed to how the Liberal party will invest in mental health, addiction issues and more health-care workers to help fill in the gaps.

Neil Lumsden — Progressive Conservative

Lumsden is a Canadian Football hall of famer, who was the general manager of the Ticats when they won the 1999 Grey Cup and was a player with the Edmonton Eskimos when they won the cup three times.

He was also the general manager and chief operating officer of the 2003 Road World Cycling Championships in Hamilton.

Lumsden has also managed a sports marketing agency and was Brock University's athletics director. His family established Lumsden Brothers, a food distributing company.

Lumsden didn't attend the Cable 14 riding debate and previously told the Hamilton Spectator the party asked him not to attend despite being invited.

PC leader Doug Ford was expected to visit the riding on Thursday to rally support for the party and Lumsden, though cancelled the stop due to time constraints.

Other candidates

Cassie Wylie is running for the Green Party. She's a small business owner and is a "nature-based child-care provider" according to her website. She's also pursuing a horticulture at Mohawk College, where she previously received a diploma in recreation.

Jeff Raulino is running for New Blue Ontario. He worked as a mechanic, fork lift technician, a real estate agent and is now a small business owner.

Raulino's Instagram pages include posts that oppose vaccine mandates and appear to show him in attendance at anti-public health measure rallies.

Domenic DiLuca is running for the Ontario Party. His profile on the party page says he has lived in Stoney Creek for 36 years and recently retired from a job in the steel industry. He also says he is standing up for freedom, family and faith.

Cameron Rajewski is a candidate with the Electoral Reform Party. The party is new and says it is "committed to raising the accountability of government by addressing the electoral system at the core of our democracy."