Hamilton is 'critical stop' says expert, after O'Toole becomes 3rd party leader to visit in 2 days

A politics expert from McMaster University says Hamilton appears to be a "critical stop" in the election after federal Conservative leader Erin O'Toole visited Wednesday — the third federal party leader to appear in Hamilton in just two days.

Clifton van der Linden, an assistant professor of political science and founder and CEO of Vox Pop Labs (the makers of Vote Compass), said he didn't expect O'Toole to visit because the Liberals and NDP usually win most local ridings.

"This could be seen in two ways. One, it's sort of that local strategy to shore up support where it exists, or two, it could be … sending a national signal of a party that wants to be seen as having the wind in its sails," he said.

"This is an election which, at the outset seemed almost pre-determined, and now an increasing number of seats seem up for grabs."

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau visited Ancaster on Tuesday morning with a housing announcement while NDP leader Jagmeet Singh made a stop on the Mountain that afternoon. 

O'Toole addressed a crowd Wednesday evening of almost 100 people on the third floor of the city's convention centre.

CBC's poll tracker shows the margin continues to narrow nationally between the Liberals and Conservatives, lowering the odds Trudeau can reach the 170-seat mark needed for a majority government.

It's not yet clear if margins have tightened in Hamilton in any way. In 2019, The Liberals won the ridings of Burlington, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, while the NDP took Hamilton Centre and Hamilton Mountain. 

The Tories have the riding of Flamborough-Glanbrook, created in 2015, but current MP David Sweet isn't running this year, opening up the seat.

Sweet beat out the Liberals by fewer than 2,000 votes in 2019.

Dan Muys, a longtime Conservative volunteer and campaign manager who's worked for Sweet, is running for the Tories.

"It's great that all the leaders are here," Muys told CBC Hamilton before O'Toole's speech.

He said his party's focus on affordability could win over locals, especially as more people flock to Hamilton after being unable to buy a home in the Greater Toronto Area.

Muys is up against Liberal Vito Sgro, who worked on local Liberal campaigns and tried to become mayor in 2016. Sgro at the time opposed the LRT.

The NDP has candidate Lorne Newick, union leader and electrician, the People's Party has Bill Panchyshyn and the Greens haven't announced a candidate.

Though at least one person at O'Toole's speech said it will be an uphill battle to win ridings like Hamilton Centre.

"It's going to be tough, but possible. That's my honest answer," said Shamus Van Riezen, who is part of the Conservative's  Electoral District Association for Hamilton Centre.

Speech highlighted economy and Hamiltonians

O'Toole's speech focused on a a post-pandemic economic recovery plan.

"All Canadian families deserve an economic recovery from COVID," he said.

That issue appeared to have resonated with people in attendance.

"We see how weak the economy is in Canada. I lost all my belief in the current government," said 58-year-old Danny Ha, who immigrated from Vietnam when Stephen Harper was Prime Minister.

Some others in attendance who spoke to CBC Hamilton said they wanted their local MPs to protect the right to free speech and ensure Canada doesn't become a communist country, pointing to people facing persecution for practicing Falun Gong.

O'Toole's speech was also sprinkled with Hamilton references.

The Conservative leader noted hard-working locals who beam with "Steeltown pride."

He also mentioned the John Weir Foote V.C. Armoury and fallen Hamilton soldier Nathan Cirillo.

The visit, Van der Linden said, is part of the Conservatives' efforts to capture votes from blue-collar workers.

"The NDP is the traditional steward of union, blue-collar workers. It's really something that's being challenged by Conservatives," he said.

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