These charts reveal a Canada-U.S. bond forged in steel and aluminum

It's a move that could reshape North American trade.

Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on all steel and aluminum products coming into the U.S. from anywhere, including Canada.

That means each time any Canadian steel or aluminum crosses the 49th parallel, U.S. importers will have to shell out 25 per cent to the U.S. government — on top of another 25 per cent if Trump makes good on his threat to tariff all goods coming from Canada. 

Here are nine charts that put the metal trade between the U.S. and Canada in perspective.

Like a lot of Canadian products, the vast majority of steel and aluminum exports go to the U.S. Just how heavy is this reliance? In December 2024 alone, more than a billion dollars' worth of steel was bound for the U.S. The bulk of these exports came from Ontario. Aluminum is also a billion-dollar export, with most of it coming out of Quebec.

Trump's stated goal in imposing tariffs is to temper demand for foreign commodities and help spur domestic production in the U.S. As a result, U.S. demand for Canadian products would drop and likely lead to job losses here at home, especially in Quebec and Ontario.

"If we make it in the United States, we don't need it to be made in Canada. We'll have the jobs, that's why Canada should be our 51st state," Trump said.

Statistics Canada data shows about 5,000 jobs in the steel sector are located in Hamilton, Ont., home to Stelco Inc. and ArcelorMittal Dofasco Inc. Another 2,400 workers are in Toronto.

Those are big numbers, but these are also big urban centres with diversified workforces. There are 2,400 steel workers located in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., a medium-sized city with a total population under 80,000, so significant job losses would be more acutely felt.

While Ontario steel workers would feel the brunt of any major layoffs, data shows Canadians across the country are employed by the steel industry.

As for aluminum, nearly 3,000 people are employed in the aluminum industry in Saguenay, Que., alone, home to a Rio Tinto production facility. Other economic regions in Quebec would also be impacted, including Trois-Rivières, Sept-Îles and Baie-Comeau.

Let's look at the tariffs from the U.S. perspective. Canada is a crucial trading partner to the U.S. and the top foreign supplier of steel and aluminum in the U.S., ahead of China and Mexico.

Canada's steel and aluminum are the building blocks for a huge swath of consumer goods, including cars, cans and appliances.

To understand the effects on the U.S., we only have to turn the clock back to 2018, the year Trump last imposed similar tariffs. After those measures were introduced, a report published by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research found the 2018 tariffs "neither raised nor lowered U.S. employment in newly protected sectors," but found "retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts." A U.S. Trade Commission report found steel and aluminum prices increased as a result of the tariffs. Those tariffs were scrapped in 2019.

The Canadian government has yet to unveil how it will respond, and if it will impose retaliatory tariffs.

"If it comes to that, our response, of course, will be firm and clear. We will stand up for Canadian workers. We will stand up for Canadian industries," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said last week.

Right now, Canada and the U.S. have a near-reciprocal steel trade relationship. In 2024, nearly $13 billion US worth of steel and iron crossed into the U.S. from Canada and a little more than $11 billion US went in the other direction, according to figures from the U.S. Census Bureau.

However, the gulf between imports and exports of aluminum is huge. The U.S. brings in more than three times as much as it exports to Canada, highlighting how much the supply chain between the two countries relies on aluminum from Canada.

The protectionist tariffs proposed by Trump could have seismic effects on the steel and aluminum industries and its workforce in Canada. But let's consider that the three categories impacted by the tariffs accounted for about 4.5 per cent of total exports from Canada in December 2024.

The White House said the steel and aluminum tariffs will take effect March 12.

Meanwhile, Canada is holding its breath, waiting to see if Trump makes good on a separate threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods.