Calgarians split on arena deal, Edmontonians hate it, rest of Alberta mostly opposed: Vote Compass
Public opinion may not change campaign, political scientist says, but it could have effect after the vote
The plan to use $330 million in provincial funds as part of a $1.2-billion project that includes a new arena for the Calgary Flames faces strong opposition from Albertans, as a whole, but sentiment is more evenly split among Calgarians.
That's according to weighted results of roughly 7,500 people who responded to the Vote Compass tool, which was developed by a team of political scientists and aims to help users navigate the political landscape before the May 29 Alberta election.
Overall, 59 per cent of respondents disapproved of the deal, with 40 per cent "strongly" disapproving and 19 per cent "somewhat" disapproving.
That compares to 26 per cent who approved — 11 percent "strongly" and 15 per cent "somewhat."
But the responses were quite different, depending on where people live.
Calgarians were far more likely to approve of the deal, with sentiment roughly split between approving and disapproving.
Edmontonians, who received no provincial funding in their 2013 deal for a new Oilers arena, overwhelming disapproved of the deal for Calgary.
And people living outside the major cities also opposed the deal, although not quite as strongly as Edmontonians.
Calgarians have a long and complicated history with their NHL hockey team and the idea of using public funds for a new arena.
Back in 2015, the Calgary Flames ownership group announced a $900-million plan, dubbed "CalgaryNext," to build not just an arena, but also a stadium to house the Calgary Stampeders football team (which it also owns), asking for $440 million in support from the municipal government.
That proposal withered and died.
It was succeeded in 2019 by a new plan to build an arena only, near the site of the existing Saddledome, with city council initially agreeing to fund half of the $550-million project.
The estimated price tag grew, however, and the deal became a contentious issue in the 2021 municipal election. The deal was ultimately terminated in early 2022.
Then last month, Premier Danielle Smith joined Mayor Jyoti Gondek and Flames representatives just days before the election was called to announce a new, $1.2-billion arena / event centre deal.
The announcement included the following details:
- Calgary would contribute $537 million to fund development of the arena/event centre, parking structure, an enclosed plaza and 25 per cent of a secondary community rink.
- The Flames ownership group would contribute $40 million up front and $17 million per year, increasing one per cent each year, over 35 years. That money would go toward event centre costs, as well as parking, the enclosed plaza and 25 per cent of the community rink. It would also contribute $1.5 million per year to community sports.
- The province would contribute $300 million toward related infrastructure work — including transportation improvements, land, infrastructure and site costs. It would also contribute $30 million to fund 50 per cent of the community rink. The province would also pay for the demolition of the Saddledome.
The parties involved have declined to provide further details and have said answers to more specific questions will be forthcoming, but not until after the election.
On the campaign trail
The timing of the announcement has led some observers to view the deal as a campaign strategy for the United Conservative Party to win votes in Calgary, which is widely believed to be the key battleground in the election.
UCP Leader Danielle Smith denies that's the case, but has also said a UCP victory would mean a finalized deal.
"I'm hoping this doesn't become an election issue," she said the day after the deal was announced.
"I would hope that in the spirit of unanimity we would see the same kind of approach from all the political parties in supporting this deal."
Smith added: "People will know that if the UCP gets re-elected, absolutely this deal is going to be a done deal."
NDP Leader Rachel Notley has hedged on her position, saying she needs more information.
"It does certainly present as an exciting opportunity for Calgarians and for downtown revitalization," Notley said Thursday.
"But once again, what we know is that the cost has doubled in 18 months and the ask of public and taxpayers has tripled in 18 months and at the same time there are significant pieces of information that we aren't being given access to. So we need to see that information before we go further."
Little effect — until after the election?
Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt doesn't think the arena deal will end up having a big impact on the election.
While UCP supporters outside the two big cities may not like the deal, he says it's unlikely to sway their vote intention, as they tend to dislike the NDP even more.
"I don't think it's going to move votes one way or the other," Bratt said.
Edmonton's opposition to the deal may be strident, but the UCP doesn't have much to lose in the capital city, where the NDP won all but one seat in the last election.
And in Calgary, the split in support may turn out to be a wash.
"Where it might matter," Bratt said, "is what happens after the election."
He believes public opposition to the project could make it easier for the next provincial government to walk away from the deal, regardless of which party wins.
How the Vote Compass data is gathered and interpreted:
Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in Alberta exclusively by CBC Radio-Canada. The findings in this story are based on 7,449 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from May 2 to May 4, 2023.
Unlike online opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data is a non-random sample from the population and has been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample.
Vote Compass data has been weighted by gender, age, education, region and partisanship to ensure the sample's composition reflects that of the actual population of Alberta according to census data and other population estimates.
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