Back of the napkin: How the Alberta election may come down to PLOT! TWISTS!

Political scientist Lisa Young uses online flow charts to explain the ups, downs and zig-zags of Alberta politics. Throughout the next four weeks, she will sketch out the campaign's big what-ifs in a recurring series for CBC Calgary.

The great thing about Alberta politics is the wild plot twists.

The opposition party crossing the floor to join the government.  A party whose caucus could fit on a picnic blanket bringing down a four-decade dynasty. A party that won in a landslide voting to turf their leader mid-way through their first term. 

Editors would laugh at a fiction writer who tried to include these sorts of twists into their novel or movie script. 

Back in spring 2022, as the UCP embarked on a leadership review, I was doing a radio interview, earnestly explaining all the possible scenarios, and then the scenarios that could emerge from those scenarios, and so on. When I hung up the phone, I decided to draw a flowchart and post it on Twitter. 

The first version was old school: pen and paper, captured in a picture. Then I upgraded to colour, using my Apple pencil and iPad, and organized the chart so that probability was the vertical axis. 

Soon after, I added what has become everyone's favourite part of my flowchart: the plot twist. Because in Alberta politics, you never know. 

Long-lost twins. Alien invasions. Godzilla putting us out of our misery. 

Mostly, the flow charts are just for fun. But they can also be helpful to thinking through what is more or less likely in the fast-paced environment of Alberta politics. 

A few colleagues have told me they share them with their students, to encourage "thinking like a political scientist." 

The good folks at CBC have asked me to draw a few of these during the provincial election. I have to confess that I'm struggling with them a bit. 

Following the polls closely and paying attention to how they might translate to seats, I think the situation looks something like this:

I've put the probability of a UCP win ever so slightly greater than an NDP win. Why? Well, the folks who have fancy models that take poll numbers and project likely seat counts are pretty clear that the advantage goes to the UCP. 

I'm saying it's a bit closer than those projections, in part because of Janet Brown's recent Calgary poll which projected that the NDP is poised to win a lot of seats in the city. Also, the UCP has quite a bit of baggage that could become a problem for them mid-campaign. 

When I start thinking about what might add a bit of interest to the chart, it's actually difficult to come up with a plausible scenario that moves the projection. I mean, sure, if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decides to announce production caps on oil in mid-May, things change.

But we all know this isn't likely to happen. Heck, it practically qualifies as a plot twist! 

Albertans' vote intentions — at least judging by what they're telling pollsters — are pretty fixed.

The UCP has bombarded the province with government ads about affordability measures and has been making so many spending announcements that our heads are spinning. Their support hasn't moved. 

The NDP has asked Albertans whether they really, truly trust UCP Leader Danielle Smith. And then they've asked again. They've dug up her comments about paying for health care and made sure that Albertans have seen them too. Their support hasn't moved. 

It's hard to imagine the campaign event that moves vote intentions in a significant way.

The debate? Maybe — it certainly made a difference for NDP Leader Rachel Notley in 2015. 

But would it be enough to make those two arrows cross? Maybe if it's combined with some "lake of fire" candidate baggage?

So we're just going to have to wait to see if anything shakes up this campaign.

That's the thing about plot twists — you normally don't see them coming.