Liberals eyeing more seats in Tory-blue Alberta, as some ridings may be tight contests

Until last month, Lindsay Luhnau had rejected requests to run as a federal Liberal in Alberta's energy capital.

"It's not easy to be a Liberal in Calgary," Luhnau said. "I've been asked many times and always said no."

Her answer changed last month when the governing Liberals changed leaders, and she figured the tide could turn.

"Once [Liberal Leader] Mark Carney was successful, I called and said, 'Is this spot still open?' said Luhnau. She was nominated to run in Calgary Centre four days after the writ drop to launch the federal election.

The campaign is now at the three-week mark, and pollsters suggest Calgary Centre is one of a handful of urban Alberta ridings that will likely be tight contests between the federal Conservatives and Liberals.

It's the first time in recent memory the western province has been one to watch.

Tory blood runs deep in Alberta, and its long-standing preference for the Conservatives isn't diminishing, said pollster Janet Brown. But a number of seats have become toss-ups this election as the progressive vote appears to be consolidating behind the Liberals, she said.

"The Conservatives are remaining strong. In fact, their support may even be growing in Alberta," said Brown. "But the reason Alberta is going to be competitive is because the NDP vote seems to be collapsing."

Until 2015, Calgarians had not elected a Liberal since 1968, a streak that started and ended with Pierre and Justin Trudeau's respective campaigns for prime minister. Today, the Liberals and NDP each hold two Alberta seats.

This time around, political scientists point to four Calgary ridings that will be competitive alongside a handful in Edmonton.

"Before 2015, during federal elections, Alberta was often a flyover province," said political scientist Lori Williams.

But in a campaign focusing on affordability, the economy, and who will best stand up to the tariff and annexation threats of U.S. President Donald Trump, Williams noted that Alberta has gone from flyover to stopover.

"Some of the behaviour of the leaders is raising questions about whether things are changing," said Williams, with Mount Royal University in Calgary.

"It's clear that there's a lot more going on in Alberta than monolithic conservatism."

In recent days, Carney has tipped the white cowboy hat in a two-day visit to Calgary. Calgary-born Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre held a massive rally at a warehouse outside Edmonton.

Both have vowed to fast-track resource development and reduce red tape during their trips to Canada's energy heartland.

Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi is the Liberal's highest-profile candidate running in Alberta. Sohi, a Liberal cabinet minister before being elected the city's mayor, took leave last month from his mayoral duties to run in Edmonton Southeast. Lawyer Jagsharan Singh Mahal is running for the Conservatives in that riding.

Calgary Confederation, a riding across the Bow River from downtown, is expected to be a tight contest. Three-term Conservative MP Len Webber announced his retirement from politics the day before the campaign started. Jeremy Nixon, a former Alberta MLA, has replaced him as the Conservative candidate.

Webber, 64, recently told The Canadian Press he believes he would have won "handily" had he run again. The neighbourhood has been a reliable friend to federal conservatives since the 1940s.

"I speak to many people at doors who have said to me, 'Len, we've supported NDP provincially, but we will be voting for you federally.' I don't know if that has anything to do with me personally — that they're voting for me or is it the party? I'm not sure."

The riding's Liberal candidate, Corey Hogan, said he sees "a real pragmatic streak" among local progressives that could result in previous NDP voters lining up behind the Liberals.

"When I'm door knocking and I see an NDP sign, the conversion rate is almost 100 per cent to, 'Yeah, I'll vote for you if you look like the person who's going to win,"' said Hogan.

In neighbouring Saskatchewan, more predictable results are expected in the province that has become staunchly conservative with its steady conversion to a resource-based economy. Save for the tremendous popularity of former nine-term Liberal MP Ralph Goodale, Saskatchewan has elected just two Liberals since 1997.

"We are now the most consistently conservative province," said Tom McIntosh, a politics and international studies professor at the University of Regina.

However, more than half of its electoral map could be Liberal red on election night.

Boundaries around the massive Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River riding — which singularly covers the entire northern half of Saskatchewan with a population of almost 38,000 — were recently redrawn. The new map shelved several conservative-leaning communities away from the riding, and historical voting patterns show the new region would have voted either Liberal or NDP in the previous two elections.

In Manitoba, where urban ridings often go to progressive parties, political scientists suggest cratering support for the New Democrats may encourage the party to make a last-ditch campaign effort to shore up its strong voting base in Winnipeg and the north.

"The NDP has often retreated to Manitoba when they've been in a lot of trouble. That might be happening now," said Chris Adams, adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

Nevertheless, he said progressive voters appear to be shifting toward the Liberal party.

"I think that we'll see the similar red sweep of most of Winnipeg. That is quite likely, if these numbers are right."

Election day is April 28.