Alberta NDP could make huge gains in Calgary and win popular vote, new poll suggests — but still lose election
Opposition could win popular vote and most Calgary seats, but still lose election
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research in late March, roughly two months before Albertans vote in the next election on May 29.
As with all polls, this one is a snapshot in time.
This analysis is one in a series of articles to come out of this research.
The Alberta NDP is ahead of the United Conservative Party in Calgary, the battleground city where Rachel Notley's party will likely need a landslide to overtake Danielle Smith's government, according to a new 1,000-person poll of Calgarians.
Given that both parties and almost all observers have declared that how blue or orange Alberta's largest city is will determine the election's winner, CBC News commissioned this special poll only of Calgarians by Janet Brown Opinion Research. It allows us to delve into the minds of Calgary voters in a depth no province-wide poll can, and assess the main parties' strengths and weaknesses in Calgary's different quadrants.
New Democrats are comfortably ahead by double-digit margins in both northeast Calgary and the northwest, while they have a slight edge in southwest Calgary and trail the UCP in the southeast.
City-wide, the NDP has support of 47 per cent of decided and leaning voters to UCP's 42 per cent. Notley is ahead, but it's a fragile lead, Janet Brown says.
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"If I were the NDP, I wouldn't be comfortable with this advantage," the veteran pollster said.
The survey was conducted between March 23 and April 6, ahead of the May 29 provincial election.
Hello, Calgary
Calgary is the grand electoral prize of Alberta politics not only because it has 26 of Alberta's 87 seats, but also because its urban voters have become most likely to change their minds from election to election.
In 2015, the NDP won 15 of the city's seats, and became government. In 2019, the Jason Kenney-led UCP won 23 of Calgary's ridings and their own province-wide majority.
In that election, 55 per cent of Calgary voters chose United Conservatives and 32 per cent went NDP. Election results that mirror these new poll findings would constitute a massive swing in Notley's favour.
However, with a five-point advantage for the NDP, the opposition party's lead barely sits outside the margin of error.
"That lead could evaporate very quickly if the UCP has a more effective get-out-the-vote strategy than the NDP has," Brown said.
Low approval ratings continue to dog Premier Danielle Smith, who replaced Kenney as UCP leader in October. Asked how impressed they were with Smith on a 0-10 scale, half of respondents gave her a low score of three or less, while 29 per cent said they were highly impressed with her and scored her at seven or higher. Another 20 per cent gave her a neutral rating.
That is nearly the mirror opposite of Calgarians' impressions of Notley, who's front and centre in NDP campaign ads and pamphlets. Thirty per cent said they were unimpressed, 45 per cent highly impressed and 24 per cent in the middle.
Notley of the north
The next premier will have to effectively strategize how to stack up wins in Calgary's various quadrants.
UCP support is strongest in Calgary's southeast, where the party leads the NDP 52 per cent to 40.
The NDP is performing best in the northeast, leading 48 to 33. It's ahead 52 to 38 in the northwest, while its 45-to-43 edge in southwest Calgary puts the parties in a virtual tie.
LISTEN| Pollster Janet Brown explains the science behind the poll:
These numbers would translate into 18 Calgary seats won by Notley's party and eight for Smith's, according to Brown's estimates.
"That means the NDP looks like they're in position to win the majority of seats in Calgary, but I'm not sure that 18 seats is enough to win province-wide."
Even if you combine 18 Calgary seats and a sweep of the 20 ridings in Edmonton — Notley's hometown stronghold — that still wouldn't be enough to give the NDP a 44-seat majority and victory. The opposition party would also have to make gains in Alberta's smaller communities or rural ridings, where the United Conservatives are strongest.
Other smaller parties continue to barely register. The Alberta Party is hanging on to three per cent while one per cent each said they would support the Wildrose Independence Party, Alberta Liberals and Alberta Greens.
Six per cent of respondents are considered "orphaned voters," those polled who don't like any of the options.
"Those voters have already rejected the two major parties. So I don't think there's much chance that those parties can convert those voters into supporters at this point," Brown said.
Who's blue, who's orange
The NDP are particularly strong among Calgary women, leading the UCP by 51 per cent to 41, while the parties are virtually even with men. NDP retains its traditional strength among young voters, but is also leading the UCP by 10 percentage points among senior citizens, the poll suggests.
The UCP enjoys a healthy lead with Calgarians with no post-secondary education or some, while respondents with university degrees clearly prefer the New Democrats.
While some city quadrants appear to clearly prefer one party over the other — and the NDP is better in the inner city, the UCP in the suburbs — there would be more subtle distinctions if you drilled down further, said Jack Lucas, an associate professor of political science at the University of Calgary.
"When you zoom in on the city of Calgary itself, there are districts within the city that are particularly ideologically diverse and competitive," he said. "When you zoom in within those districts, you even see particular neighbourhoods or communities that are especially competitive.
"So it's a battleground, no matter what scale you're thinking about."
CBC News' random survey of 1,000 of Calgarians was conducted using a hybrid method between March 23 - April 6, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.
The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of half landlines and half cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialled up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample.
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