Fact check: Did Alberta really lose 183,000 jobs under Rachel Notley?

In a February advertisement, the United Conservative Party claims Rachel Notley's NDP government lost 183,000 jobs during its four years in government. Is it true?

"[Rachel Notley] wants you to forget that her NDP drove us into massive debt and lost 183,000 jobs," says the video posted to YouTube by the UCP on Feb. 7.

No, it's not true.

According to the labour market data from Statistics Canada, when the NDP came into power in May 2015, there were 2,274,500 Albertans employed. Four years later in April 2019, there were 2,316,900 — a net increase of 42,400 jobs.

Even the trend-cycle that smooths monthly variations in statistics and irregularities shows an increase in the number of employed people in Alberta from the beginning and end of the New Democrats' term.

According to Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, another way to calculate employment is based on Statistics Canada's Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours.

This report accounts only for salaried positions, and therefore could exclude those who are self-employed. And if a person has two jobs, they're counted as two people.

According to this survey, Alberta counted 2,058,539 salaried workers in May 2015, and 2,032,528 four years later — a loss of roughly 26,000 jobs. That's a significant difference from the 183,000 job losses highlighted by the UCP's ad. 

Difficult economic times

However, Alberta's four years of Rachel Notley weren't all sunshine and roses from an economic standpoint, either. During her first 14 months as premier, close to 85,000 jobs were lost, according to Statistics Canada.

The main reason can be found in the fall of oil prices, which began in the second half of 2014, explains Alberta Central economist Charles St-Arnaud. After peaking at over $105 US, a barrel of oil fell to $30 US at the start of 2016.

Numerous energy companies made layoffs. The unemployment rate reached 8.9 per cent in July 2016.

"It doesn't matter which party formed the government. Considering the shock we had with the decline in oil prices, we would have had a recession anyway," said St-Arnaud. "The economy contracted by 3.5 per cent in both 2015 and 2016, so a decent decline in economic activity and of course led to big job losses."

We would still have had a recession in Alberta. That was an external shock. It was not due to any particular policies of the government in place.- Charles St-Arnaud, economist

Politicians had even less influence because the impact came from outside the province, he added.
 

Data from Statistics Canada shows the number of people employed in Alberta gradually increased after the mid-year low in 2016. The rest of the economy adapted to the new reality of a low oil price, St-Arnaud said.

Better increases under the United Conservatives

Employment rates were much stronger during the four years of the UCP, despite the pandemic's impact on the labour market.

According to data from Statistics Canada, when Jason Kenney came into power, roughly 2,307,000 Albertans were employed. In April, under Danielle Smith, there were roughly 2,443,100 — an increase of about 136,000 jobs in four years.

St-Arnaud still doesn't believe that the two economic crises are comparable. 

He said the drop in oil prices was a major economic moment that dramatically changed the economy by impacting projected investments in the sector, whereas the pandemic had a different, more temporary impact.

St-Arnaud explained that once pandemic restrictions were lifted, the economy was able to rebound and people got back to work. He noted that another major factor was the federal government's increased stimulus for post-pandemic economic recovery.

Countrywide, however, the province is doing well.

"We've had a lot of workers that came to Alberta, but the economy was strong enough, there were enough jobs to absorb those new arrivals," St-Arnaud said.

The UCP has not responded to requests for the sources of the numbers in the advertisement.

This story was originally published May 1, 2023, in French.