Mark Carney charts course for Alberta as campaign nears conclusion

UPDATE: Due to Saturday night's incident in Vancouver, the Liberal campaign has cancelled its scheduled rally in Calgary on Sunday. The party still plans to hold a smaller event in Edmonton on Sunday. Below is the story as originally published about Liberal Leader Mark Carney's planned events in Alberta.

Once seen as flyover territory during federal campaigns, Alberta has turned into a hotbed of political activity on the final weekend before election day.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney is travelling to Alberta on Sunday afternoon for a pair of events, with rallies in Edmonton and Calgary. The visit marks Carney's second event in Calgary during this campaign. Both events are listed on the party's website.

The planned visits come two days after Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre jetted into Calgary on Friday, drawing a large, cheering crowd. Earlier in the campaign, Poilievre packed an industrial warehouse near Edmonton with supporters, which included former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.

The focus on Alberta comes as political watchers have speculated several seats in both Edmonton and Calgary are tight races between the Conservatives and Liberals. The possibility of taking multiple seats in both cities represents a stark change from recent Liberal history.

After the Liberals picked up four seats in Alberta in 2015, the party's best result in the province in decades, they were wiped out across Alberta in 2019, before winning Edmonton Centre and Calgary Skyview in 2021.

Pollster Janet Brown says the party is dropping in on Alberta because the difference between a Liberal majority or minority government could come down to ridings in Western Canada.

"Mark Carney is very focused on how many more seats he needs to flip into majority territory," said Brown.

"I think he's counting with his fingers and his toes right now that it's going to come down to individual seats."

Brown also took note of Poilievre's visit to Calgary on Friday.

She argues that holding the Conservative party's Alberta seats is important, because even if Poilievre loses Monday's election, he needs to hold the Liberals to a minority and hold onto party leadership so he can challenge them in another election.

"This is the last line of defence for him. This is the place that's going to keep the Liberals to a minority so the Conservatives can regroup and maybe try and win another election in a couple years," Brown said.

Ken Boessenkool, a political strategist and partner at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, planned several federal election campaign tours for former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. He said it's not unusual for the Liberals to stop in Alberta near the end of a campaign, but he believes two rallies there a day before voting closes makes a statement.

"I think it says that the underlying numbers are moving," Boessenkool said. 

"I understand that the numbers in Alberta have been shifting over the last 48 hours, and I think they're making a play."

A visit from a party leader can boost local riding polling, Boessenkool estimates, and in tight races in Calgary and Edmonton where he believes just two to five per cent will separate the Liberals and Conservatives, he says that late bump could make a big difference.

The ridings political analysts have deemed to be up for grabs in Calgary, traditionally a Conservative stronghold, include McKnight, where the Liberals' lone MP in the city, George Chahal, is running, as well as Centre, Confederation and Skyview. 

Boessenkool highlighted Calgary Confederation especially, where the Conservatives' Jeremy Nixon and the Liberals' Corey Hogan present popular, credible candidates who both sides will want in their caucus.

In Edmonton, Brown notes the ridings to watch are the hotly contested race for the Liberals' seat in Centre, Mayor Amarjeet Sohi's bid for the Liberals in Southeast, and two NDP-held ridings in Strathcona and Griesbach during an election where she says the New Democrats have few safe seats.

Zeroing in on western issues

When Carney speaks on Sunday, Brown will be watching to see how much he focuses on major election issues for western voters like pipelines and affordability.

"He's probably going to talk about Donald Trump, but the Donald Trump message in and of itself is not enough for western Canadians," Brown said.

"He's got to talk about how he has a new vision and voting for him won't be the same as voting for the Liberal government we've had for the last 10 years."

During his Friday appearance in Calgary, Poilievre encouraged supporters to get out and vote in big numbers. He also pledged the Conservatives would "stand up" for the West, further voicing his support for the province's energy sector.

Rob Russo, The Economist's Canada correspondent, believes that spending precious time during the final day of the campaign indicates the Liberals believe several ridings in the province are in play, which is unusual.

Russo added that if Carney wins Monday's federal election, he'll need to quickly address growing frustration in Alberta that has spurred some discussions of a national unity crisis.

He argues that on Sunday, and again as prime minister if he wins on Monday, Carney will have to assure Albertans his government will take a different approach than the Trudeau government.

"He has fences to mend in Alberta, and I imagine it's going to be one of his first agenda items should he become prime minister," Russo said.

Voting closes on Monday, April 28.