Federal byelection to be held today in Calgary Heritage following MP resignation

UPDATED: The CBC Decision Desk projects that Conservative Shuvaloy Majumdar will win the federal byelection in Calgary Heritage.

Majumdar, a long-time Conservative staffer, will represent the riding once held by former prime minister Stephen Harper.

The seat has been vacant since December when then-MP Bob Benzen resigned and left political life.

The original story is written below:

Voters in the federal riding of Calgary Heritage will go to the polls today to decide who will fill a seat previously held by Conservative MP Bob Benzen.

Benzen was first elected in 2017 in a byelection following the resignation of former prime minister Stephen Harper. Benzen resigned and vacated the seat late last year, citing a desire to return to private business and family life.

Calgary Heritage has tradtionally been a safe seat for the Conservative Party, having been taken by the Tories by comfortable margins each of the four times it has been contested since 2015 — three times by Benzen and once by Harper.

The electoral district, formerly dubbed Calgary Southwest, was established following federal electoral redistribution in 2012. However, the riding largely occupies same area as its predecessor, which Harper held from 2003 until 2015. 

Calgary Southwest was also the seat of Preston Manning, who led the old Reform Party.

Still, political analysts and party officials will be keeping an eye on things like voter turnout, momentum or changes in vote share, looking for trends or whether certain messages resonate with people.

Polls are open on Monday from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. Advance voting took place from July 14 to 17, and the estimated number of electors who voted at advance polling in the riding was 8,966, according to Elections Canada.

That number will be updated after the election once the results are verified.

The candidates

Shuvaloy Majumdar is a longtime Conservative staffer who has worked at Harper & Associates, the former prime minister Harper's consulting firm, since 2016. Prior to that, he worked in foreign affairs in the Harper government. He won the party's nomination in March.

In various videos posted to his YouTube channel, Majumdar advocated for changes to Canada's energy policies, admonished what he referred to as a "woke wave of tyranny" in the country, and promised his party would work to reduce the cost of living.

"I'm running because I'm inspired by our leadership, by Pierre Poilievre, a man who I've known for 25 years," Majumdar said in a video.

A spokesperson for Majumdar said the candidate would not be doing interviews until July 25.

Elliot Weinstein, the federal Liberal Party candidate, suggested his small business experience might draw undecided voters to his side. 

Weinstein is the owner of a Calgary-based indoor beach recreation facility, The Beach YYC, and was previously a project manager at consulting firm Golder Associates. He said people he's spoken to while door-knocking often voice concerns about affordable housing, health-care and energy policy.

"We're offering a positive vision, a positive candidate, somebody who's not an insider, who has business experience and wants to be a new positive voice in government," Weinstein said.

The federal NDP candidate, Gurmit Bhachu, has been an elementary school teacher for many years and is the communications chair for the Calgary Public Teachers' Association Local 38.

Bhachu said he was focused on the issues he was hearing at the door, including affordability and inflation.

Though Calgary Heritage has long delivered for the Conservative Party, Bhachu said he felt the NDP shared a perspective on issues with voters he's met while door-knocking.

"Well, the challenge is culture, right? A lot of people here in Calgary Heritage, they vote conservative because that's how their grandparents voted, that's how their parents voted, that's how they're going to vote," Bhachu said.

In addition to Majumdar, Weinstein and Bhachum, other candidates in the riding include:

• Ravenmoon Crocker, Green Party of Canada.
• Dan Irving, Maverick Party.
• Kelly Lorencz, People's Party of Canada.
• Larry Heather, Christian Heritage Party of Canada.

Earlier this year, four byelections took place across Canada, with the Liberals and Conservatives taking two seats apiece. The four seats were considered safe districts for the parties that had held them, but still provided plenty to analyze despite the status quo being returned to the House of Commons.

Though Monday's contest may be viewed as a sleeper on its face, there are "tea leaves" to be read, according to  Lori Williams, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary.

"It's important to remember, this is Stephen Harper's former riding. It's got a long list of fairly high-profile conservatives that have represented it federally," she said. 

"But it also overlaps with a riding, Calgary-Glenmore, that is represented right now provincially by an NDP candidate, a very strong NDP candidate [Nagwan Al-Guneid], who won by a squeaker, but nevertheless won in this riding. So there's a lot of diversity here."

Information on where to vote is available here from Elections Canada.