Alberta separation movement knocked by business groups, analyst

Deborah Yedlin gets that some folks in Alberta are not thrilled with yet another federal Liberal government, but she says the separation movement the premier is flirting with could seriously hurt the province and the country.

"When there is uncertainty, money sits on the sidelines or companies leave or labour leaves," Yedlin, the Calgary Chamber president and CEO, told the Calgary Eyeopener in a Thursday interview.

"What does that do? Your tax base shrinks. You don't have that corporate tax base or personal income taxes. It's not where anybody wants to go."

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Yedlin is in Ottawa making Alberta's economic case to a new federal cabinet.

She likes what she sees so far.

"This is a different government, a different cabinet with a different focus," she said.

"Individuals who were not supportive of the energy sector are not going to have the same voice that they may have had in previous iterations in government. That view is going to be directed differently and pragmatically."

But the anger of some Albertans is understandable, says the president of the Business Council of Alberta.

"I think it's important not to dismiss the concerns and frustrations of Alberta," Adam Legge told CBC News in an interview.

He said his members, on balance, don't support leaving Canada.

"Obviously, the separatist option is the nuclear one, on the very end of the scale, that I hope we never achieve because we believe Alberta's place is in the federation, is in Canada."

A political scientist says, however, sometimes Alberta can make that hard.

"Some of the demands [Alberta Premier] Danielle Smith has made of the federal government are beyond the federal government's capacity to provide," said Lori Williams of Mount Royal University.

"If you want to build pipelines, you need the support of not just leaders but of the people they represent. Taking a demanding, entitled approach to negotiations is less likely to generate the support needed for Alberta to get things like pipelines built. We have to work with other parts of Canada as well as the federal government."

And then there are those thorny conversations around equalization, and all the confusion that percolates around that.

"There's an assumption that Alberta is giving more to Canada than it's getting back," Williams said.

"When you put all the federal transfers together, not just equalization, things like fiscal stabilization, health transfers, social service transfers, education transfers — the numbers don't look as even as they otherwise would. The per capita money coming into Alberta is on par with the per capita money going into other provinces."

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That would change, however, if Alberta were to chart its own path.

"It would have to assume a share of the national debt and pay the full cost of all of the services being supported by federal money."

Yedlin, meanwhile, is focusing on sunny days ahead.

"We have tremendous opportunity now," she said.

"We have, from what I am hearing, a government, and the messages are pretty clear, a government that really wants to harness the economic potential of this country. What's the downside of doing that? There is no downside."

Legge isn't mincing words about secession.

"The consequences will be significant, the costs will be significant. It doesn't solve a lot of the problems and concerns we have. Separating from Canada doesn't make a pipeline any easier, faster, or cheaper. Let's find ways to know how we can defend our interests," he said.

"I absolutely believe there are companies reconsidering investment in Alberta in this time of separatist conversation."

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But for Williams, it's a matter of looking at the bigger picture.

"I think many Albertans would be less supportive of separation once they started looking at those sorts of things," she said.

"I think there are people who are angry and that's being fuelled online and by some leaders. They assume that talk of separation will yield some kind of concessions from others, and I just don't know if that's a safe assumption."