High stakes for Alberta as clarity on Trump tariffs to come into focus today
Donald Trump to be sworn in for 2nd term as president of the United States
After weeks of concern, confusion, calls for unity and subsequent dissent, Canada is set to finally have clarity today on U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's threats to enact widespread tariffs on Canadian imports on his first day in office.
Alberta has found itself square in the national headlines as inauguration day approached, for its chief export — energy is Canada's largest export to the U.S., worth about $125 billion last year — and for its premier's response to Canada's plans to retaliate.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who recently met with the president-elect, is in Washington, D.C., for the inauguration, as is a large Alberta contingent of government and industry officials. In recent days, Smith has rejected the idea of retaliating against Trump via energy export taxes or bans.
She will not attend the inauguration in person as the event has been moved indoors due to cold temperatures.
Smith is scheduled to take part in the Canadian embassy's inauguration day event later on Monday afternoon and will attend the Republican Governors' Association evening reception.
Alberta businesses are waiting with bated breath to see what actually transpires as Trump's plans are due to come into focus, said Deborah Yedlin, the president and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.
"What is going to be the impact on the Canadian dollar? How inflationary is this going to be?" Yedlin said Friday on the Calgary Eyeopener. "This is potentially going to cause the pocketbooks … to shrink. Our terms of trade will shrink, because our dollar will be affected."
Though several factors could change things, an analysis by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe suggested that a 25 per cent, across-the-board tariff by the U.S. could shrink Canada's economy by two to three per cent, and Alberta would be the province most exposed "by a wide margin."
From a local perspective, there's a concern around employment, Yedlin said.
"We're worried about what happens with companies that are still struggling with the impact of higher interest rates and debt levels, and now this is going to be another blow for them to navigate," she said.
Oil industry groups like the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) will be on the ground at the inauguration today. Last week, CAPP was one of five major Canadian energy industry groups that released a statement, announcing they had formed a joint working group to combat the threats of tariffs.
On Thursday, the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors released a statement, writing that free trade has yielded mutual benefits for both Canada and the United States.
"It is unfortunate that the significant benefits of this trading relationship are now being threatened, with both countries likely to experience adverse effects," the statement reads.
"CAOEC is aligned with the position of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and opposes intervention by any government, including tariffs and countervailing actions, as government interference in the market often results in unfavourable outcomes."
Canada's agriculture industry is also bracing for the potential of punishing tariffs. Last year, Alberta's agriculture exports to the United States were worth $8.9 billion.
"It has the potential to really be devastating for our industry in Canada," Keith Gregory, chair of the Alberta Cattle Feeders' Association, told CBC News last week.
CBCNews.ca, the CBC News app and CBC Gem will carry the CBC News Special: The Inauguration of President Donald J. Trump, hosted by chief correspondent Adrienne Arsenault live from Washington, starting at 8 a.m. MT.
You can view the livestream everywhere you stream CBC News: on CBC Gem, the CBC News app, the CBC News YouTube channel and on your smart TV.
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With files from Lily Dupuis