Forget a bus shutdown — here's what getting around could be like after a major earthquake

Faced with the possibility of a system-wide bus shutdown as a result of job action earlier this week, UBC student Jonathan Harris said there was a "general panic" at the university about how students would make it to campus.

Harris decided to see what it would take to walk from his East Vancouver home to the university — documenting the four-hour, 13-kilometre expedition from Fraser Street and King Edward Avenue in a well-read blog post for the Ubyssey.

Though the post was in jest and the transit shutdown didn't happen, Harris, who said he's "kind of obsessed with earthquakes," said it also made him reflect on the reality of getting across town in the aftermath of a natural disaster.

Another person who has spent a lot of time studying that scenario is John Clague, an emeritus professor at Simon Fraser University who studies natural hazards, with a focus on B.C.'s South Coast.

He said the possibility of a bus shutdown highlighted people's ability to come up with creative solutions in the face of a major disruption — but it also drives home the need for people to be self-sustaining.

"This bus strike will seem like a picnic in comparison to what would happen after an earthquake," he said. 

Clague said Vancouver is made particularly vulnerable by its unique geography, which makes it "difficult to get from one part of the city to the other, even under the very best conditions."

He said the main question is the extent to which Metro Vancouver's many connecting bridges — the Lions Gate, the Ironworkers Memorial, the Port Mann — could sustain a moderate to massive earthquake.

"Without them we would be in real trouble. We would have isolated elements of the city," he said, emphasizing that the North Shore could be especially vulnerable.

Vancouver's West End, which is likely to sustain some of the heaviest damage because of the number of older buildings there, could also become cut off from the rest of the city.

Clague said that all major bridges, with the exception of the Queensborough Bridge, have now been seismically retrofitted and could adequately deal with a moderate earthquake. 

Ronald Powell, the general manager of the Canada Line, has said that while the line could likely maintain structural integrity, it might not be fully operational after an earthquake. 

Clague said it's unclear how current infrastructure would hold up under "the biggest kind of earthquake that mother nature can throw at us."

In 2011 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit Christchurch, New Zealand, destroying almost 2,000 kilometres of road and requiring at least a billion dollars worth of repairs.

Clague said roads would also likely be covered in rubble and could take weeks to be cleared, making walking and biking the most efficient, and safest, ways to get around.

He said families should have discussions about the possibility that it could take time — even several days — before they can be reunited.

"That's the reason authorities recommend that individuals be able to look after themselves and their neighbours for a minimum of 72 hours. You're on your own in a disaster and you have to be somewhat prepared for that," he said.

Designated disaster response routes

The city has designated roads, rails and marine transport routes that will be used for "transporting and treating sick and injured people, maintaining law and order, rescuing trapped people, and restoring essential services," according to the city website.

These roads are not intended to be used as evacuation routes for the general public, and Clague said it's important people know to keep them clear.

"In my mind, people in an emergency are just going to flood the roads and it would be chaotic," he said.

"I can just imagine it being gridlocked with cars, making it almost impossible for people to get anywhere."

Having completed a major urban expedition on foot, Harris said that even in a city you know well, it's easier than you might think to get turned around when you're used to depending on major roads and Google Maps.

"Especially in an earthquake or transit strike scenario, the streets are going to be full of other people or other stuff. So if there would be rubble, [your route] wouldn't be very direct. It would be especially useful to really know where you're going," he said.