B.C. economies 'less exposed' to potential U.S. tariffs: Canadian Chamber of Commerce

B.C. cities, in general, would be among the least vulnerable in Canada if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on tariff threats, according to new data from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. 

That isn't to say that British Columbia wouldn't suffer: the chamber's chief economist, Stephen Tapp, says those tariffs would be recessionary for the whole country. 

"I don't think anybody's really fully insulated from Trump's tariff threats," he told CBC's Daybreak Kamloops guest host Doug Herbert. "But I think that the B.C. economies in our numbers come out a lot less exposed than some of the other places in the country."

The chamber's Business Data Lab looked at Statistics Canada information from 41 cities across Canada with populations of more than 100,000 people. This means the data is lacking when it comes to rural Canadians, who also have a vested interest in Canada's trade relationship with the United States. 

From there, they assess how much each city exports to the U.S. 

Kamloops, located 253 kilometres northeast of Vancouver, ranked 40th out of 41 cities, would be the second-most resilient in the event the U.S. does impose tariffs on Canadian goods, according to the chamber's calculations.

Exports from Kamloops to the U.S. account for about 2.3 per cent of the city's GDP — well below the national average of about 20 per cent, Tapp said, and only about 15 per cent of its exports go to the U.S.

UBC economist Ross Hickey said Kamloops is in a good situation in that they don't rely on the U.S. for trade the way other communities do, but the city has been missing out on an "ideal" trading partner. 

"U.S. markets are kind of where it's at for Canadian producers," he said. "The U.S. is the largest consumer market in the world, very high income, high population and it's right next door.

"Trade with the United States is not going to go away because of tariffs. Tariffs are going to make trade less favourable ... but there are still opportunities for economic integration with the United States."

Nanaimo, 307 kilometres southwest of Kamloops on Vancouver Island, is not far behind Kamloops; U.S. exports make up about 4.1 per cent of the city's GDP, while just over 30 per cent of its exports go to the United States. 

Victoria, Kelowna, Vancouver and Chilliwack are all on the lower end of the scale in terms of tariff exposure. The only B.C. city that could see a really negative impact, according to the chamber's data, would be Abbotsford-Mission, which ranked 15 out of 41 cities and is situated along the Canada-U.S. border. 

"There's obviously some regional variation," Tapp said. "But I think one of the main benefits of the economies on both of the coasts, but particularly for B.C., is that there's a lot more trade with Asian economies and a lot less dependence on the U.S. market."

Hickey said that although B.C. is certainly more insulated from future tariffs, the province already suffered when softwood lumber tariffs nearly doubled last year.

But Hickey said there's been a lot of focus on how tariffs could impact Canadians, but not enough on how policies south of the border might push the United States into a recession, which he said could have a greater impact on Canada's economy. 

"If Trump's policies reduce the income of Americans, that's not good for us as a trading partner," he said. "I don't wish ill upon our trading partners, I hope that they recover from the insanity that's taking place right now."