NDP widens lead but B.C. election remains too close to call

The winner of the 2024 B.C. election will be decided on Monday, with the tallying of around 22,000 absentee votes, after an updated count of mail-in ballots over the weekend failed to produce a clear winner.

Officials spent Saturday and Sunday counting the approximately 44,000 mail-in ballots that were sent in after the close of advance voting, but said they weren't enough to give a definitive answer.

The new tally did, however, see the NDP gaining some ground in two key ridings. 

The party now leads over the B.C. Conservatives by 113 votes in the Juan de Fuca-Malahat riding, up from 20, and 178 votes in Surrey City Centre, up from the previous 93. Both ridings will further be subject to manual recounts, because the margin of victory is so slim. 

The NDP has also tightened the race in Surrey-Guildford, where it is now just 12 votes behind the Conservatives, instead of 103.

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Elections B.C. says around 22,000 absentee ballots — votes made by people at a different polling place than they were assigned — will be counted Monday, with updates posted hourly to its website.

The result of the manual recount in Surrey City Centre is expected to be released by Sunday night, while the Juan de Fuca-Malahat riding's will come Monday, according to Elections B.C. 

A partial recount in Kelowna Centre that finished Sunday evening narrowed the gap between the NDP and Conservatives, but kept the latter party in the lead by 68 votes. 

The riding joins Surrey-Guildford as the second district where the margin of victory has sunk below 100 votes since the final counting began this weekend. That's usually the bar for a manual recount to be called, as with Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat, but Elections B.C. told CBC News it will wait until absentee ballots have also been counted on Monday before it determines if those recounts are necessary. 

"Once final count is complete on [Oct.] 28 we will be able to confirm if a district will go to an automatic judicial recount," spokesperson Andrew Watson said in an email.

"If the difference between the top two candidates following the conclusion of final count is less than 1/500th of the total ballots considered, there will be an automatic judicial recount in that district."

No ridings were flipped as a result of the weekend's updated tallies, but CBC News upgraded four ridings it had the NDP leading in to projected wins, as well as as one riding the Conservatives were leading in to a projected win. 

The B.C. NDP are leading or elected in 46 seats, the B.C. Conservatives in 45 seats and the B.C. Greens have been elected in two seats. In the B.C. Legislature, 47 seats are required to form a majority government.

Elections B.C. was mandated by law to wait until Saturday to begin its final count.

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