Conservatives hope for a blue wave in Lower Mainland's southern suburbs on election day

Each federal political party has areas of support in B.C. — and for the Conservative Party, it's the Fraser Valley and south of the Fraser River.  

While the region is changing, it's an area that historically has been less densely populated than the City of Vancouver, with higher median income levels. It rarely elects NDP candidates federally or provincially. 

There are 13 federal electoral districts in this part of B.C., and in the last two decades the Conservatives have won these seats 70 per cent of the time.

The one exception to this was the 2015 election, when the Liberals won a majority of these seats — but the Conservatives took four of them back in the 2019 election. The party currently holds nine of the region's 13 seats, and all nine incumbents are seeking re-election. 

While some of those ridings could be in play when the polls close, the ones in the eastern part of the Fraser Valley are among the safest Conservatives seats in the country: Ed Fast seeks re-election in Abbotsford; Mark Strahl seeks re-election in Chilliwack-Hope; and Tako van Popta seeks re-election in Langley-Aldergrove

The NDP winning seats in Langley and Chilliwack last provincial election gives some hope to the other parties, but federally it's been more than 50 years since any riding in this region went to a centre or left-wing party. 

Northern Fraser Valley more competitive

But in the north side of the Fraser Valley, elections tend to be a bit closer — which may be one of the reasons the Liberals have recruited interesting candidates to try to take back ridings they won in their 2015 majority government but lost in their 2019 minority. 

In Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Maple Ridge city councillor Ahmed Yousef hopes to defeat Conservative candidate Marc Dalton. 

And in the awkwardly shaped riding of Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon — which includes everything in its name but is broken up geographically by Chilliwack and Hope — lawyer Geet Grewal seeks to defeat Conservative candidate Brad Vis. The riding has attracted some international attention due to the campaigning of Grewal's partner, Parmish Verma, an Indian superstar singer helping to get out the vote with his six million followers on Instagram. 

Swing seats in Surrey

But it's the perennial battleground of Surrey that will receive the most attention from the political parties. 

With five ridings, it's the only city in B.C. that has elected Conservative, Liberal and NDP candidates in the last 10 years, giving all three hope this time around that they can flip one of the ridings. 

The NDP will hope to make gains in the two ridings where they finished in second last election: Surrey-Newton, where community activist Avneet Johal hopes to unseat Liberal incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal, and Surrey Centre, where social worker Sonia Andhi looks to defeat Liberal incumbent Randeep Sarai. 

Meanwhile, the Conservatives will hope their well-known candidate in Fleetwood-Port Kells, former longtime MLA Dave Hayer, will be able to defeat Liberal incumbent Ken Hardie. And in South Surrey-White Rock, the Liberal Party hopes former MP, MLA and White Rock Mayor Gordie Hogg can defeat Conservative incumbent Kerry Lynne-Findlay, in what will be their third straight election facing off against each other. 

Richmond and Delta

Finally, there are three other ridings on the coast worth watching.   

In Richmond, Conservative candidates Alice Wong and Kenny Chiu seek re-election. Wong has been an MP since 2008 and won handily in Richmond Centre last time, but Chiu won Steveston-Richmond East by just 3,000 votes, so Liberal candidate Parm Bains will have hopes in two weeks.

And then there's Delta. The only riding in British Columbia that neatly encompasses a single municipality has elected Liberal Carla Qualtrough the last two elections. 

But the Conservatives cut their deficit in half last time (from losing by about 9,000 votes in 2015 to 4,500 in 2019) and have historically done well here. They hope Garry Shearer, the local chamber of commerce director, will be able to pull off an upset. 

It could be an election where suburban seats around Metro Vancouver determine the next government — or it could be another election night where the results are mostly known before vote counting even begins in B.C.