What's up with the Blue Jays' offence in September?
Toronto sits 2 games back of Red Sox for AL East lead
What's happened to the high-flying Blue Jays?
A team built on offence has suddenly gone cold, relinquishing its hold on top spot in American League East to the Boston Red Sox, and have allowed Baltimore, Detroit and New York to crowd the wild-card race.
From July 1 to Aug. 31, Toronto had the best record in the AL, but since the calendar flipped to September, the Jays have posted the worst record, tied with the lowly Minnesota Twins.
So what's the problem?
Well, Blue Jays hitters' strikeout and walk rates are fairly similar, which suggests their approach at the plate hasn't changed much.
They're striking out slightly more — 27 per cent of at-bats in September compared to 25.4 per cent in July and August, but they've actually upped their walk ratio, taking a free pass 11.2 per cent of the time compared to 9.7 per cent in July and August.
September's sample size is small, but it matches up with the numbers when Toronto was the best team in the AL.
The difference is in the quality of hits. Their extra-base hits are down, and their at-bats per home run number is astronomically lower. Throughout all of this, their flyball rate is actually higher than it was during July and August.
If those flyballs start finding more gaps and those warning track shots start going just a few feet further, the Jays' offence can turn around in a hurry.
Where is the Rain?
The biggest concern for Toronto is the status of reigning MVP Josh Donaldson. Usually the main cog in what's supposed to be a dominant offence, Donaldson – who had 14 hits over the final 10 games in August – has gone ice cold in September, going hitless in seven straight before sitting out Monday's win against Tampa Bay.
It's perhaps no coincidence that the wins have dried up for the Jays at the same time.
During the Jays' July and August stretch, "The Bringer of Rain" was posting MVP-like numbers as he hit .298, with an on-base percentage of .417 to go along with 15 home runs and 39 runs batted in.
But his September has started rough, as he's hitting .097 with no HRs or RBI.
John Gibbons described Donaldson's day off during Monday's series-opener against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays as a rest.
"He's beat up, his body's banged up . . . Let him regroup, rest up," the manager said.
Best-case scenario is that Gibbons is right and Donaldson can regain his MVP form. Worst-case is Donaldson is dealing with something worse that could sink the Jays' post-season hopes.