In North Dakota, Donald Trump's win is assured even if his fandom has softened
Solidly red state staying that way, says political scientist noticing fewer overt displays of Trump fandom
Phil Hall says putting up election signs, trumpeting his support for Democrats in his deeply red state, has become a morning ritual for him and his wife.
He brings those same signs into his Pembina, N.D., home every night because he fears a thief will steal them again.
"I already knew we had a few bad apples here," he said.
Hall is a proud Democrat surrounded by Republicans in a border town of 500 people.
"Some are nice," he said, highlighting one neighbour he speaks with almost every day, "and we have some not-so-nice [neighbours] where we have nothing to say to each other."
The strain of a contentious presidential election in the United States, concluding with Tuesday's vote, has tested relations in the country's neighbourhoods, even in states like North Dakota, where the result is a forgone conclusion.
Manitoba's southern neighbour is so reliably Republican, it hasn't voted a Democrat for president since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson won all but six states in a historic sweep for his party.
Trump won handily in 2020
In fact, in the 2020 election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won the popular vote by a margin of 33 percentage points — the third-highest margin of any U.S. state.
And yet, Hall, a retired military employee, refuses to be a Democrat-in-hiding.
Rather, he'd stop anybody who tries to silence him. If a thief jumps his fence in the dead of night to steal his "democracy over dictatorship" sign, they may walk onto the metal end of a strategically placed rake.
"I already know North Dakota is going to go Trump's way," he said.
If so, the Republicans would take the three electoral college votes that North Dakota provides, out of the 270 needed to secure the presidency.
Hall said he cannot cast his ballot for the Republicans because Trump is a convicted felon who allegedly called military members who've died in wars "suckers" and "losers," among other reasons.
While other households in Pembina proudly waved Trump flags and put up signs, the large majority of homes kept any political affiliations to themselves.
Mark Jendrysik, a political science professor at the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks, said he isn't seeing the same overt displays of Trump fandom he saw during the former president's first and second bids for the White House.
With Trump's win in North Dakota expected, Jendrysik said he assumes people are thinking there's "probably no need to go all out" for his third run for the presidency, "but I do wonder if it is a sign of some waning enthusiasm."
North Dakotans will still vote for Trump overwhelmingly, Jendrysik said. He said many people in the state are conservatives who bristle at how they're perceived by the rest of their country.
"They're a tiny state, but it's one of the major energy-producing states, major agricultural states," he said.
"I think there's a desire on the part of North Dakotans to be recognized for that, to be noticed."
The Republican Party, and particularly Trump, are seen as their champion, Jendrysik said.
Dylan Vukelich finds Trump supporters whenever he wears his white hat, embossed in gold lettering with the phrase, "Trump Force Captain."
"People give me the thumbs up while they're driving by," Vukelich said. "Even in Starbucks, they're like, 'Hey, love your hat.'"
In the last year, the 28-year-old's become an avid Republican volunteer, supporting Trump in the presidential race but also Republican candidates in various down-ballot races in Fargo, where he lives, and in neighbouring Moorhead, Minn.
He's unfailing in his endorsement of Trump's first term in office, even in the face of criticism around some of his policies and rhetoric.
"If anyone has any concerns, I'd just say to look at the person.… Look at all the great things he's done as president: no new wars, helping get the economy up, great trade agreement."
Abdikarim Mohamed isn't convinced, however.
A Muslim, the Somali immigrant said he cannot support Trump, whom he described as an "unpredictable" man who once imposed a travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority countries.
But Mohamed said he cannot endorse the Democrats, either. He voted for Joe Biden for president four years ago, but since then, the cost of living has soared, and he's disappointed the United States has spent billions of dollars helping Ukraine in its war with Russia while it hasn't stopped Israel's assault on Gaza.
Due to "all of these issues combined," Mohamed said, "I've decided to switch to the Green Party."
He knows his vote won't change who becomes president, but he wants the Greens to become a viable third party with the ability to shape the outcomes of future elections.
Back in the border town of Pembina, Hall said he'll accept the outcome of Tuesday's vote like he's accepted his place in town, as a Democrat in a staunchly Republican community.
"It's fine with me, because I know there's other places in this country that it's just the opposite."
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