Who will (and who should) be nominated at the 2025 Oscars

Awards season is here, and our resident Oscar nerd (and CBC Arts producer) Peter Knegt will be regularly updating his predictions for the main event: the 97th Academy Awards, which will go down on March 2, 2025. He also has offered who he thinks should be nominated in many of the categories, though he is very much prepared for heartbreak in that regard.

The predictions will updated as the season goes along, based on the latest buzz from the awards circuit as viewed through the lens of Knegt's decades-long Oscar fanaticism. You can also check out his monthly column My Favourite Season for all things award season as we count down to the big day.

Click to jump to each category:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best International Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Best Animated Feature
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Sound
Best Makeup & Hairstyling 
Best Visual Effects

Best Picture

What will be nominated (in alphabetical order):
Anora, The Brutalist,  A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

What should be nominated (in alphabetical order):
Anora, Challengers, Flow, Hard Truths, I Saw The TV Glow, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Universal Language

What's going to win:
We appear headed for one of the most unpredictable best picture races in some time. Last year, we were pretty much certain of Oppenheimer's win many months in advance. This year, things feel drastically less clear, with four films all having legitimate paths to Oscar's biggest prize: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez. The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez are both hot off Golden Globe wins, arguably making them the two to beat. But I have a funny feeling about Conclave managing to squeak through as a sort of middle-of-the-road winner that no one hates, since both The Brutalist and even more so Emilia Pérez have their haters.

Best Director

Best Director

Who will be nominated:
Anora (Sean Baker), The Brutalist (Brady Corbet), Conclave (Edward Berger), Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Who should be nominated:
Anora (Sean Baker) , I Saw The TV Glow (Jane Schoenbrun), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Who's going to win:
For a while there it seemed down to two budding American auteurs both on their first nomination: Baker and Corbet. But the (in my opinion, very questionable) surge in support for Emilia Pérez sets the stage for a French twist here with Audiard.

Best Actress

Who will be nominated:
Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths),  Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Who should be nominated:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths),  Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Who's going to win:
This category is already turning into a legendary battle just for the nomination, with my predictions (which could very well be wrong) leaving off the likes of Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie, among many others. (If it were up to me, I'd expand this category to 10 and then let every single nominee give a 10-minute speech.) As for the winner, Demi Moore seems to have locked this down after many months of it seeming like anybody's prize.

Best Actor

Who will be nominated:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Who should be nominated:
Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Justice Smith (I Saw The TV Glow), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

Who's going to win:
It seemed like Brody had a second Oscar in the bag for a while there, but Chalamet is surging for his portrayal of Bob Dylan (the Oscars love them a music biopic in acting categories). Fun fact: if Chalamet wins, he'll beat the record for the youngest winner ever in this category held by... Adrien Brody.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will be nominated:
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson),  Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Who should be nominated:
Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Joan Chen (Didi), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Who is going to win:
Almost certainly Saldaña at this point, with Grande a distant second.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will be nominated:
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

Who should be nominated:
Yura Borisov (Anora), Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Josh O'Connor (Challengers), Adam Pearson (A Different Man)

Who is going to win:
Culkin seems to have this in the bag, though he better watch out for Norton.
 

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who will be nominated:
Conclave (Peter Straughan), Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard), I'm Still Here (Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Maclin, John Whitfield)

Who should be nominated:
I'm Still Here (Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes), Queer (Justin Kuritzkes), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Maclin, John Whitfield)

Who is going to win: Peter Straughan's script for Conclave feels like the safest bet here, though RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes are close behind (and deserve it).

Best International Feature

What will be nominated:
Emilia Pérez (France), The Girl With The Needle (Denmark), I'm Still Here (Brazil), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany), Universal Language (Canada)

Best Documentary Feature

What will be nominated:
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Will & Harper

Best Animated Feature

What will be nominated:
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Best Editing

What will be nominated:
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two

Best Cinematography

What will be nominated:
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Maria, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu

Best Production Design 

What will be nominated:
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Best Costume Design

What will be nominated:
The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

Best Original Score

What will be nominated:
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

Best Original Song

What will be nominated:
"El Mal" (Emilia Perez), "The Journey" (The Six Triple Eight), "Kiss The Sky" (The Wild Robot), "Mi Camino" (Emilia Perez), "Will and Harper Go West" (Will & Harper)

Best Sound 

What will be nominated:
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Wicked

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

What will be nominated:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man,  Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Best Visual Effects

What will be nominated:
Alien: Romulus, Dune: Part II, Gladiator II, KIngdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Check back for updates to these predictions as we slowly but surely make our way to the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025. Additional categories will be added each month as the season continues.