Who will win at the 2025 Academy Awards? Here are final predictions in every category

Awards season is here, and our resident Oscar nerd (and CBC Arts producer) Peter Knegt has finalized his predictions for the main event: the 97th Academy Awards, which will go down on March 2, 2025. The nominations are out, but who will ultimately win? Here's Knegt's thoughts:

Click to jump to each category:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best International Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Best Animated Feature
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Sound
Best Makeup & Hairstyling 
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Short
Best Documentary Short
Best Live Action Short

Best Picture

The nominees:
Anora, The Brutalist,  A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

What's going to win:
It was a wild race for a while there, with 6 films looking like they could win even just a few weeks ago. But it has now appeared to have narrowed to a showdown between Anora and Conclave, with Anora definitely having the edge. 

Best Director

The nominees:
Anora (Sean Baker), The Brutalist (Brady Corbet), A Complete Unknown (James Mangold), Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Who's going to win:
This is down to two budding American auteurs both on their first nomination: Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. Baker won the coveted DGA Award, while Corbet has won both the Golden Globe and BAFTA. History favours DGA winners more than anything else, so my best is Sean Baker takes this home.

Best Actress

The nominees:
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Who's going to win:
This category was already a legendary battle just for the nomination, with Oscar voters leaving off the likes of Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie, among many others. (If it were up to me, I'd expand this category to 10 and then let every single nominee give a 10-minute speech.) As for the winner, Demi Moore is certainly the sentimental favourite, but Mikey Madison and Fernanda Torres are both very much in this. My heart wants to say Moore, but I ultimately think Mikey Madison will pull this off in a squeaker.

Best Actor

The nominees:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Who's going to win:
It seemed like Adrien Brody had a second Oscar in the bag for a while there, but Timothée Chalamet has been stronger than expected for his portrayal of Bob Dylan (the Oscars love them a music biopic in acting categories). Fun fact: if Chalamet wins, he'll beat the record for the youngest winner ever in this category held by... Brody. Though I do think in the end Adrien Brody himself will stop that from happening.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees:
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown),  Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Who is going to win:
Almost certainly Zoe Saldaña at this point, even with all the wild Emilia Pérez developments that have plagued that film in general.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees:
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Who is going to win:
Kieran Culkin has this in the bag.

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees:
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold and Jay Cocks), Conclave (Peter Straughan), Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard),Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Maclin, John Whitfield)

Who is going to win: Peter Straughan's script for Conclave feels pretty certain to win this, but I'd love to see Nickel Boys challenge it (because it deserves this very much).

Best International Feature

The nominees:
Emilia Pérez (France), Flow (Latvia) The Girl With The Needle (Denmark), I'm Still Here (Brazil), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

What's going to win: Emilia Pérez seemed absolutely locked for this, but then it spiralled out into all the Karla controversy. It still has a shot to win anyway, but I'm thinking I'm Still Here ultimately ends up taking it.

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees:
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat, Sugarcane

What's going to win: No Other Land winning would make a powerful statement, and would also be deeply deserved. Here's hoping Oscar voters decide to stand for something here.

Best Animated Feature

The nominees:
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

What's going to win: I really, really want to say Flow, which was one of my favourite films of the year and absolutely the deserved winner here. But most signs point to The Wild Robot (which was very nice too!).

Best Editing

The nominees:
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

What's going to win: This is going to be one of the toughest calls of the night, but I suspect in the end this will be one for team Conclave.

Best Cinematography

The nominees:
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

What's going to win: Nickel Boys should be winning this, but it somehow wasn't even nominated. So in its absence, The Brutalist both should and will win this prize.

Best Production Design 

The nominees:
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

What's going to win: Wicked!

Best Costume Design

The nominees:
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

What's going to win: Wicked!

Best Original Score

The nominees:
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

What's going to win: Not Challengers, which is in my mind the biggest snub of the nominations. So I guess The Brutalist.

Best Original Song

The nominees:
"El Mal" (Emilia Perez), "The Journey" (The Six Triple Eight), "Like a Bird" (Sing Sing), "Mi Camino" (Emilia Perez), "Never Too Late" (Elton John: Never Too Late)

What's going to win: One of the most boring lineups in this category's history, it seems likely one of the Emilia Perez songs will push through the controversy and win, and it will probably be "El Mal." Though wouldn't it be a hoot if Diane Warren finally wins a competitive Oscar for "The Journey" after 15 losses in this category? (Though if she does, she should probably thank Karla Sofia Gascon in her speech).

Best Sound 

The nominees:
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The WIld Robot

What's going to win: Dune: Part Two.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The nominees:
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

What's going to win: The Substance.

Best Visual Effects

The nominees:
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part II, KIngdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

What's going to win: Dune: Part Two.

Best Animated Short 

The nominees:
Beautiful Men, In The Shadow of the Cypress, Magic Candles, Wander to Wonder, Yuck!

What's going to win: One of the best films of any length in any category, Wander to Wonder will win if voters decide to actually watch the films.

Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
Death By Numbers, I Am Ready Warden, Incident, Instruments of a Beating Heart, The Only Girl in the Orchestra

What's going to win: The incredibly powerful Incident deserves this but I think The Only Girl in the Orchestra is winning.

Best Live Action Short

The nominees:
A Lien, Anuja, I'm Not a Robot, The Last Ranger, The Man Who Remained Silent

What's going to win: Seems down to A Lien and The Man Who Remained Silent, which the edge going to A Lien for being so incredibly timely (it's about the deportation of migrants in America).  

The 97th Academy Awards will take place at 7pm EST on March 2, 2025.